34495 Agave #15107 · French Valley, CA 92596

$473,500

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,674 sqft · Condo public records · 175 Days on market

Built 2023 $327/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Back on market through no fault of seller. Buyer was unable to satisfy the contingency requirements related to the sale of their current property. Welcome to this 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom home offering 1,674 square feet, located in the Sevilla community of Winchester and offers a rare 5% VA assumable loan opportunity. The property features a functional floor plan with comfortable living spaces and owned solar, providing long term energy savings. The community offers amenities including a clubhouse, pool, spa, playground, picnic areas, and maintained common areas. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, parks, and within the Temecula Valley school district. A great opportunity for buyers

Key facts

• $327 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Subject to special assessments
• HOA & community: Part of Sevilla homeowners association; Association fee of $327 monthly; Community amenities include pickleball, paddle tennis, tennis, pool, spa, playground, and park; 118 units in the community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Garage with 2 parking spaces; Total of 2 parking spaces
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: Standard electric; Public/district water; Public sewer; See remarks for additional utilities
• Home design: Multi-family condominium; Attached property with one common wall; Turnkey condition; Two stories; Entry on level 1; Has a view
• Construction: Tile roof; Finished basement; Concrete slab foundation; Year built per assessor
• Exterior features: Patio; Pool available through association; Corner lot; Fence in excellent condition

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas & electric range; Eating area in kitchen / family kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms; All bedrooms upstairs; Primary suite
• Flooring: Wood flooring; See remarks for additional flooring details
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Bathrooms include walk-in shower and bathtub/shower
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling; Central furnace heating
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Insulated windows; Carbon monoxide detector(s); Spa access via association/community
• Laundry & utility: Has laundry; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $474k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $291k (38.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $339k (28.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $291k (38.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#655 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Temecula Valley Unified (urban): math 55% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #173 of 1,400 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 355 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $51k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $47k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$81k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($417k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $291,101 (38.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.35%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $182,499
• Equity at exit: $426,566

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.31×
• Total profit: $571,981
• Equity at exit: $919,906

Cash invested: $132,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92596

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 355
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,393 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,483
• Tax from tax record: −$705 /mo · $8,463/yr
• Insurance: −$197
• HOA: −$327
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$712
• Net cashflow: $-1,033

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,699

Max offer price $291,101

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $118,375
• Closing costs: $14,205
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34495 Agave Dr Bldg 24 Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,645	$1.89	24d	1	0.02mi
34495 Agave Dr #1105 Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1399	$3,250	$2.32	10d	1	0.02mi
34495 Agave Dr #20106 Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1400	$3,050	$2.18	18d	1	0.02mi
34875 Pourroy Rd Winchester, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	976	$2,980	$3.05	2d	1	0.65mi
33014 Marin Fields Rd Winchester, CA	4.0	2.0	1779	$3,795	$2.13	44d	1	0.79mi
34543 Ciruela AVE French Valley, CA	3.0	2.5	1497	$3,400	$2.27	2d	1	0.94mi
31647 Angel Aura Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1711	$3,195	$1.87	17d	1	0.99mi
31629 Angel Aura Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	3.0	1711	$3,099	$1.81	22d	1	0.99mi
35350 Marabella Ct Unit 35350 Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1925	$3,300	$1.71	2d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $327 · $3,924/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $473,500 Active 175 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $473,500 Active 174 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $473,500 Active 173 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $473,500 Active 172 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $473,500 Active 170 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $473,500 Active 166 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $473,500 Active 165 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $473,500 Active 164 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $473,500 Active 161 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $473,500 Active Under Contract 160 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $473,500 Active Under Contract 159 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $473,500 Active Under Contract 158 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $473,500 Active Under Contract 157 DOM
14. 2026-05-05
    listed Active Under Contract
15. 2026-04-30
    soldstatus Closed Sale
16. 2026-04-15
    historical Active Under Contract
17. 2026-04-08
    status Pending Sale
18. 2026-03-09
    historical Active Under Contract
19. 2025-12-13
    listed $473,500 Active
20. 2025-12-13
    historical $473,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,463 · $705/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,463 · $705/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone D · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,710
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,523
• − Property taxes: −$8,463
• − Insurance: −$2,368
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,257
• − Management: −$3,257
• − HOA: −$3,924
• − Depreciation: −$13,775
• Taxable loss: −$20,856
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,005
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,385/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Temecula Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600028
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $84,032
• Composite: 57.48/100
• National rank: #2264
• State rank: #173 of 1400 in CA

Livability — French Valley

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #655
• US rank: #20351

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: French Valley, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,981
• Household income: $132,538
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 591.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Asian 12% Black 6% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.43%
• Current HPI: 332.169
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed — CRMLS
• 2026-04-30 Sold (MLS) — CRMLS
• 2026-04-15 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2026-04-08 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-03-09 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2025-12-13 Listed $473,500 CRMLS
• 2025-12-13 Coming Soon $473,500 CRMLS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,463 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.