2 bd · 1.5 ba ·
832 sqft ·
Built 1966
· Condo
· Active
· 1 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,446/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,180
Tax + insurance
−$889
HOA
−$500
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$514
Net cashflow
$-636/mo
Annual
$-7,638/yr
Cap rate
5.17%
Cash-on-cash
-4.00%
DSCR
0.82
1% rule
1.09%
Cash to close
$63,000
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $225k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-636 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $113k (50.0% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $225k).
Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $113k (50.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Sebastian Middle School (math 59% / reading 59%, grade B, #144 of 571 statewide, top 26%, 654 students, 42% FRL); St. Augustine High School (math 54% / reading 62%, grade C, #120 of 667 statewide, top 18%, 1,784 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 40% FRL vs 20% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 58% at this address vs 74% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St. Johns average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 20% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 534 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $195k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.1% in St. Augustine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-AMA9A8FX4BJ8ZX
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29