475 Thrush Dr #13

Big Bear Lake, CA 92315

$56,500B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 627 sqft · Built 2016 · Manufactured · Pending · 122 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,559/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$296
• Tax + insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $815/mo
• Annual: $9,778/yr
• Cap rate: 25.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.85%
• DSCR: 3.97
• 1% rule: 2.76%
• Cash to close: $15,820

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $56k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $815 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $56k).
• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($50k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $50k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $391 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#420 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+; Watch: crime C-, housing C-, health & safety D+.
• Bear Valley Unified (town): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #289 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 528 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 7 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 25.0% vs local median 2.4% in Big Bear Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.