475 Thrush Dr #13 · Big Bear Lake, CA 92315

$56,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 627 sqft · Manufactured public records · 122 Days on market

Built 2016 2,600 sqft lot $90/sqft · at area comps Est $58k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in Trails End Mobile Home Park, owner must be 55 or older. Modular home built in 2016. Handicap ramp at back door for easier access. Stackable washer/dryer and newer appliances. Propanel metal roof, no shoveling your roof and last way longer than a regular roof. Fenced back yard and large shed on property. Down the street from the park and lake and centrally located to grocery stores, bus stop and restaurants. Owners and pets must be approved through the park. No rentals. Space rent is $850 per month.

Key facts

• Propanel metal roof
• Fenced back yard
• Centrally located

Tags

• HANDICAP RAMP
• PROPANEL METAL ROOF
• FENCED BACK YARD
• LARGE SHED
• CENTRALLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $56k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $815 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $56k).
• Recommended offer: $50k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.0% vs local median 2.4% in Big Bear Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#420 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+; Watch: crime C-, housing C-, health & safety D+.
• Bear Valley Unified (town): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #289 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 528 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $391 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($50k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.85%
• DSCR: 3.97
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $58,414
• List price: $56,500
• Delta: -3.28%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
475 Thrush Dr #13	0.00mi	1/1.0	627 (0%)	0mo	$47,000	$75	100
475 Thrush #56	0.04mi	2/1.0 (+1)	650 (+4%)	19mo	$50,000	$77	71
475 Thrush Dr #32	0.00mi	2/1.0 (+1)	720 (+15%)	14mo	$50,000	$69	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.42×
• Total profit: $38,214
• Equity at exit: $8,424

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.22×
• Total profit: $82,610
• Equity at exit: $4,885

Cash invested: $15,820 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92315

• Rents YoY: -3.5%
• Active inventory: 528
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,559 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$296
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $363/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $815

Break-even live

Break-even rent $527

Max offer price $56,500

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,125
• Closing costs: $1,695
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
784 Berkley Ln Unit 4 Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	1.0	600	$1,350	$2.25	18d	1	0.97mi
42651 Falcon Ave Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	1.0	667	$1,750	$2.62	5d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on marketlisting id $56,500 Pending 122 DOM
2. 2026-05-06
   historical Active Under Contract 514-char remark

   Show marketing remark (514 chars)

   Located in Trails End Mobile Home Park, owner must be 55 or older. Modular home built in 2016. Handicap ramp at back door for easier access. Stackable washer/dryer and newer appliances. Propanel metal roof, no shoveling your roof and last way longer than a regular roof. Fenced back yard and large shed on property. Down the street from the park and lake and centrally located to grocery stores, bus stop and restaurants. Owners and pets must be approved through the park. No rentals. Space rent is $850 per month.

3. 2026-05-06
   historical Active Under Contract 514-char remark

   Show marketing remark (514 chars)

   Located in Trails End Mobile Home Park, owner must be 55 or older. Modular home built in 2016. Handicap ramp at back door for easier access. Stackable washer/dryer and newer appliances. Propanel metal roof, no shoveling your roof and last way longer than a regular roof. Fenced back yard and large shed on property. Down the street from the park and lake and centrally located to grocery stores, bus stop and restaurants. Owners and pets must be approved through the park. No rentals. Space rent is $850 per month.

4. 2026-01-29
   listed $56,500 Active 514-char remark

   Show marketing remark (514 chars)

   Located in Trails End Mobile Home Park, owner must be 55 or older. Modular home built in 2016. Handicap ramp at back door for easier access. Stackable washer/dryer and newer appliances. Propanel metal roof, no shoveling your roof and last way longer than a regular roof. Fenced back yard and large shed on property. Down the street from the park and lake and centrally located to grocery stores, bus stop and restaurants. Owners and pets must be approved through the park. No rentals. Space rent is $850 per month.

5. 2026-01-28
   listed $56,500 Active 514-char remark

   Show marketing remark (514 chars)

   Located in Trails End Mobile Home Park, owner must be 55 or older. Modular home built in 2016. Handicap ramp at back door for easier access. Stackable washer/dryer and newer appliances. Propanel metal roof, no shoveling your roof and last way longer than a regular roof. Fenced back yard and large shed on property. Down the street from the park and lake and centrally located to grocery stores, bus stop and restaurants. Owners and pets must be approved through the park. No rentals. Space rent is $850 per month.

6. 2024-06-17
   soldstatus $51,900 Closed
7. 2024-06-01
   historical Active Under Contract
8. 2024-03-26
   status Active
9. 2024-03-10
   historical Active Under Contract
10. 2024-02-12
    price $59,000
11. 2024-01-19
    price $64,000
12. 2023-11-11
    price $69,000
13. 2023-10-16
    price $75,000
14. 2023-09-28
    listed $79,000 Active
15. 2020-09-11
    soldstatus $50,000 Closed Sale
16. 2020-09-09
    soldstatus $50,000
17. 2020-08-16
    status Pending Sale
18. 2020-07-28
    status Active
19. 2020-07-25
    historical Active Under Contract
20. 2020-07-17
    status Pending Sale
21. 2020-06-29
    listed $55,000 Active
22. 2020-06-09
    listed $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $363 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $429 · $36/mo
• Expected delta: +$67/yr (+$6/mo · 18.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 10 d/yr ≥82°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 39 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,704
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,165
• − Property taxes: −$363
• − Insurance: −$1,080
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,496
• − Management: −$1,496
• − Depreciation: −$1,644
• Taxable income: $9,460
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,270
• After-tax cash flow: $7,508/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bear Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0604230
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,222
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6588
• State rank: #289 of 517 in CA

Livability — Big Bear Lake

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #420
• US rank: #14284

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C- Employment C Housing C- Health & safety D+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Big Bear Lake, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 5,215
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 5,215
• Household income: $77,436
• Rent vs Own: 33.8% rent · 66.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 209.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 18% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -242.29%
• Current HPI: 310.1013
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.48%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+2.7% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2026-05-06 Contingent — MRCAOR
• 2026-01-29 Listed $56,500 CRMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $56,500 MRCAOR
• 2024-06-17 Sold (MLS) $51,900 MRCAOR
• 2024-06-01 Contingent — MRCAOR
• 2024-03-26 Relisted — MRCAOR
• 2024-03-10 Contingent — MRCAOR
• 2024-02-12 Price Changed $59,000 MRCAOR
• 2024-01-19 Price Changed $64,000 MRCAOR
• 2023-11-11 Price Changed $69,000 MRCAOR
• 2023-10-16 Price Changed $75,000 MRCAOR
• 2023-09-28 Listed $79,000 MRCAOR
• 2020-09-11 Sold (MLS) $50,000 CRMLS
• 2020-09-09 Sold (MLS) $50,000 MRCAOR
• 2020-08-16 Pending — CRMLS
• 2020-07-28 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2020-07-25 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2020-07-17 Pending — CRMLS
• 2020-06-29 Listed $55,000 CRMLS
• 2020-06-09 Listed $55,000 MRCAOR

Property tax history

-1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $363 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.