2 bd · 1.5 ba ·
873 sqft ·
Built 1983
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 153 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,407/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$781
Tax + insurance
−$248
HOA
−$250
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$296
Net cashflow
$-168/mo
Annual
$-2,014/yr
Cap rate
4.94%
Cash-on-cash
-4.83%
DSCR
0.79
1% rule
0.94%
Cash to close
$41,720
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $149k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-168 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $125k (16.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (5.5% below list).
It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $125k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#18 in AL, #3,949 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Daphne Elementary School (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #142 of 627 statewide, top 25%, 693 students, 53% FRL); Daphne Middle School (math 25% / reading 62%, grade D, #45 of 257 statewide, top 18%, 846 students, 45% FRL); Daphne High School (math 41% / reading 40%, grade F, #33 of 305 statewide, top 11%, 1,725 students, 40% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 879 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 110d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 4.0% in Daphne — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Minor: Paint
— The exterior trim appears to be in need of touch-up paint
Minor: Landscaping
— The landscaping around the building appears overgrown
CashFlowRE · CFR-AMPRN48S2QHG8F
· Data 5 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29