5456 Vera Cruz Rd

Emmaus, PA 18049

$305,000C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,048 sqft · Built 1850 · SingleFamily · Pending · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,488/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax + insurance: −$407
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $-41/mo
• Annual: $-489/yr
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.57%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $85,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $305k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-489/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $298k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (18.4% below list).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $249k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#61 in PA, #424 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, cost of living A+; Watch: commute F.
• East Penn SD (suburban): math 43% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #103 of 539 in PA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Emmaus Hs (math 65% / reading 24%, grade D-, #195 of 437 statewide, top 44%, 2,846 students, 24% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1850 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.2%/yr); 95 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 765 units permitted in Lehigh County in 2024 (286 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lehigh County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $305k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.4% in Emmaus — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1850 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.