5456 Vera Cruz Rd · Emmaus, PA 18049

$305,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,048 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1850 0.26 ac lot Est $385k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located on a quiet street, this updated 1850s farmhouse offers a peaceful setting within the Emmaus Borough and the highly desirable East Penn School District. This home retains its authentic 19th-century footprint and character. Buyers who appreciate historic homes will note the original exposed beams, a traditional root cellar, lower ceilings, and the natural quirks of an 1850 build, including floors and doorframes that are not perfectly square. The home also features the original single-pane windows, and in keeping with the era's architecture, two of the three bedrooms do not have built-in closets. These historic details are paired with comprehensive modern upgrades. The main floor offer

Key facts

• Renovated farmhouse
• Brand new kitchen
• Granite countertops

Tags

• RENOVATED FARMHOUSE
• ORIGINAL EXPOSED BEAMS
• UNIQUE ROOT CELLAR
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• BRAND NEW KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Crushed stone driveway; Driveway parking with three spaces; Three total garage/parking spaces
• Utilities: 100 amp electric service; Public sewer; Well water
• Home design: Detached property; Three levels; Facing direction not specified; Fee simple ownership; Property in very good condition
• Construction: Frame, masonry and vinyl siding construction; Asphalt shingle roof; Stone permanent foundation; Built (year source: assessor)
• Exterior features: Patio(s); Porch(es); Shed; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Upgraded countertops
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank; Luxury vinyl tile
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (upper level); One half bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; 90% efficient forced air; Oil-fired heating; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Attic; Stall shower; Breakfast area; Built-in shelving; Traditional floor plan; Upgraded countertops; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry hookups on the main floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-489/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $298k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (18.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.4% in Emmaus — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#61 in PA, #424 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, cost of living A+; Watch: commute F.
• East Penn SD (suburban): math 43% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #103 of 539 in PA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Emmaus Hs (math 65% / reading 24%, grade D-, #195 of 437 statewide, top 44%, 2,846 students, 24% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.2%/yr); 95 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 765 units permitted in Lehigh County in 2024 (286 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lehigh County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $305k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1850 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,798 (18.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1850 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.57%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $385,024
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5146 Vera Cruz Rd	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,944 (-5%)	10mo	$364,900	$188	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-43,830
• Equity at exit: $45,476

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-5,628
• Equity at exit: $26,371

Cash invested: $85,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18049

• Rents YoY: 6.2%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,488 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax from tax record: −$280 /mo · $3,357/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $-41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,540

Max offer price $297,798

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,250
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5709 Fox Ln Emmaus, PA	3.0	3.5	2940	$3,500	$1.19	23d	1	0.49mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   price $305,000
3. 2026-04-09
   listed $339,900 Active
4. 2025-09-10
   soldstatus $175,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,357 · $280/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,088 · $341/mo
• Expected delta: +$731/yr (+$61/mo · 21.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,856
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,085
• − Property taxes: −$3,357
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,388
• − Management: −$2,388
• − Depreciation: −$8,873
• Taxable loss: −$5,760
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,383
• After-tax cash flow: $893/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Penn SD
• NCES district ID: 4208550
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $70,679
• Composite: 47.99/100
• National rank: #2200
• State rank: #103 of 539 in PA

Livability — Emmaus

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #424

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lehigh County · 333,019 people
• City population: 18,941
• Metro: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 18,941
• Household income: $93,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 645.0

Population outlook (Lehigh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 392,957 people
• By 2030: 408,319 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 440,007 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 475,940 · +21.1%
• By 2075: 590,448 · +50.3%
• By 2100: 690,314 · +75.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 4% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Polish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Arabic 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lehigh

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.7% · R 48.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.9pp toward R · 2008: 15.6pp · 2024: 2.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.7 2020: D+7.6 2016: D+4.4 2012: D+7.5 2008: D+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -192.33%
• Current HPI: 263.1517
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.18%
• Metro: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+74.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $305,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $339,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-10 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,357 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.