315 E Brown St

Nicholasville, KY 40356

$164,900C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,005 sqft · Built — · Other · Pending · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,672/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $316/mo
• Annual: $3,797/yr
• Cap rate: 8.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.22%
• DSCR: 1.37
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $46,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $316 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $162k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#231 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Jessamine County (town): math 31% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #37 of 165 in KY (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hattie C. Warner Elementary School (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #298 of 676 statewide, top 44%, 528 students, 54% FRL); East Jessamine Middle School (math 23% / reading 44%, grade F, #105 of 217 statewide, top 51%, 936 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 496 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 267 units permitted in Jessamine County in 2024 (9 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jessamine County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $165k implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.4% in Nicholasville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.