6801 Embarcadero Ln

Carlsbad, CA 92011

$3,695,000B+

None bd · None ba · 68 sqft · Built 2009 · MultiFamily · Pending · 80 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $45,779/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$19,377
• Tax + insurance: −$5,006
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$9,614
• Net cashflow: $11,782/mo
• Annual: $141,383/yr
• Cap rate: 10.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.67%
• DSCR: 1.61
• 1% rule: 1.24%
• Cash to close: $1,034,600

Investor read

• This is a 12 × 1-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $3.69M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12k ($141k/yr) — positive. Per door: $982/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($46k rent vs $3.69M).
• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($3.47M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $3.47M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $90k of equity ($26k loan paydown + $65k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#67 in CA, #2,526 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• Carlsbad Unified (urban): math 68% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #87 of 1,400 in CA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $1.03M cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$231k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 2.1% in Carlsbad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $45,779/mo this rent would consume 345% of the median local household income ($159k/yr) (locally 714% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.