4630 Commerce Woods Dr

Wolverine Lake, MI 48382

$460,000D+

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,918 sqft · Built 1995 · Condo · Active · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $21,270/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,412
• Tax + insurance: −$643
• HOA: −$20
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,467
• Net cashflow: $13,728/mo
• Annual: $164,736/yr
• Cap rate: 42.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 127.90%
• DSCR: 6.69
• 1% rule: 4.62%
• Cash to close: $128,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $460k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14k ($165k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($21k rent vs $460k).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#204 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Walled Lake Consolidated Schools (suburban): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #58 of 540 in MI (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Glengary Elementary School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #328 of 1,397 statewide, top 26%, 332 students, 29% FRL); Walnut Creek Middle School (math 43% / reading 55%, grade C-, #132 of 493 statewide, top 27%, 655 students, 38% FRL); Walled Lake Northern High School (math 59% / reading 78%, grade B, #41 of 713 statewide, top 6%, 1,485 students, 19% FRL).
• Market conditions: 179 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $129k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 42.1% vs local median 3.3% in Wolverine Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.