4630 Commerce Woods Dr · Wolverine Lake, MI 48382

$460,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,918 sqft · Condo public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1995 $20/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 4630 Commerce Woods, a beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offering nearly 2,000 square feet of comfortable living space in one of Commerce Township's most desirable locations. From the moment you step inside, you'll appreciate the pride of ownership and attention to detail throughout. Located just minutes from lakes, parks, walking trails, and outdoor recreation, you'll enjoy everything that makes Commerce Township such a sought-after place to call home while still being close to shopping, dining, and major commuting routes. Homes this well cared for don't come along often - schedule your showing and see for yourself what makes 4630 Commerce Woods so special.

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Minutes from lakes
• Parks walking trails

Tags

• COMMERCE TOWNSHIP LOCATION
• MINUTES FROM LAKES
• PARKS WALKING TRAILS
• OUTDOOR RECREATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot acreage approximately 0.28 acre; Frontage approximately 114 feet
• HOA & community: Association fee of $240 per year; Association covers lawn maintenance, snow removal and trash removal

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener, side loading, electric in garage and direct access
• Utilities: Private well water; Public power (electric); Natural gas for heating and water heater; Public sewer information not provided
• Home design: Residential 2-story home; Built in 1995; Basement present (finished); Property faces within a subdivision in Commerce Township
• Construction: Basement foundation
• Exterior features: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Paved street access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen at entry level (10 x 13); Breakfast nook at entry level (10 x 10); Dining room at entry level (10 x 11); Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range/Oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the second floor (17 x 13); Second bedroom on the second floor (10 x 14); Third bedroom on the second floor (approx. 9' wide); Fourth bedroom in the basement (12 x 13)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One lavatory (total of three baths/lavs); Bathroom dimensions include a second-floor bath about 10 x 8 and another second-floor bath about 11 x 8; an entry-level lavatory approximately 7 x 3
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Natural gas heat/fuel; Gas water heater
• Interior features: Fireplace in the family room; Finished basement; Total of 14 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry at entry level (7 x 4); Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $460k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14k ($165k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($21k rent vs $460k).
• Cap rate 42.1% vs local median 3.3% in Wolverine Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#204 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Walled Lake Consolidated Schools (suburban): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #58 of 540 in MI (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 176 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $129k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $460,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 42.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 127.90%
• DSCR: 6.69
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.21×
• Total profit: $800,063
• Equity at exit: $68,587

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.16×
• Total profit: $1,823,586
• Equity at exit: $39,772

Cash invested: $128,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48382

• Active inventory: 176
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $21,270 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,412
• Tax from tax record: −$452 /mo · $5,421/yr
• Insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,467
• Net cashflow: $13,728

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,893

Max offer price $460,000

Occupancy floor 30%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $13,988	-5% $13,858	+0% $13,728	+5% $13,598	+10% $13,468
Rent	-10% $12,048	-5% $12,888	+0% $13,728	+5% $14,568	+10% $15,408
Rate	-1.0pp $13,960	-0.5pp $13,845	base $13,728	+0.5pp $13,609	+1.0pp $13,488

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $115,000
• Closing costs: $13,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4575 Oakestia St Unit 1032322P Commerce Township, MI	3.0	2.0	1991	$22,512	$11.31	23d	1	0.04mi
486 Charlevoix St Commerce Township, MI	3.0	2.0	1740	$3,500	$2.01	0d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on marketlisting id $460,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 691-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $460,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,421 · $452/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,252 · $521/mo
• Expected delta: +$832/yr (+$69/mo · 15.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $255,246
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,767
• − Property taxes: −$5,421
• − Insurance: −$2,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$20,420
• − Management: −$20,420
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$13,382
• Taxable income: $167,297
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$40,151
• After-tax cash flow: $124,585/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walled Lake Consolidated Schools
• NCES district ID: 2635160
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $69,184
• Composite: 49.57/100
• National rank: #1987
• State rank: #58 of 540 in MI

Livability — Wolverine Lake

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #204
• US rank: #5186

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 23,550

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -265.18%
• Current HPI: 202.3058
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+1076.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Coming Soon $460,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $400,500 Public Records
• 2001-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $264,900 Public Records
• 1996-04-12 Sold (Public Records) $190,349 Public Records
• 1996-04-12 Sold (Public Records) $39,104 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,421 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.