1263 W Saguaro St

Swift Trail Junction, AZ 85546

$85,000B+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Built 1979 · Manufactured · Active · 76 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,555/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax + insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $641/mo
• Annual: $7,695/yr
• Cap rate: 15.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.33%
• DSCR: 2.44
• 1% rule: 1.83%
• Cash to close: $23,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $641 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#232 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Safford Unified District (4218) (town): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #88 of 249 in AZ (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Graham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Graham County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $85k implies a 431% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.