279 Scrub Oak Rd

Napier, PA 15554

$130,000C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1994 · SingleFamily · Active · 255 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,216/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$217
• HOA: −$6
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $56/mo
• Annual: $670/yr
• Cap rate: 6.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.84%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $56 ($670/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (6.5% below list).
• It's been on market 255 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (8.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Chestnut Ridge SD (rural): math 41% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #183 of 539 in PA (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Bedford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bedford County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $69k (35%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (8.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 255 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Septic system — No septic system is mentioned.
• Major: Well drilling — No well is mentioned in the listing.
• Minor: Exterior paint — Slight wear on exterior siding.
• Minor: Interior paint — Slight wear on interior walls.
• Minor: Landscaping — Basic landscaping with a picnic table and deck.