279 Scrub Oak Rd · Napier, PA 15554

$130,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily · 255 Days on market

Built 1994 Fair condition 1.89 ac lot $97/sqft · 42% below area Est $223k · 42% under $6/mo HOA ↓ 35% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

LOOKING FOR QUIET PLACE AWAY FROM HOME WITH A GREAT VIEW . IN GATED COMMUNITY WITH ABUNDANCE OF WILDLIFE AND PEACE & QUIET. THIS CABIN CAN FILL THE ENVELOPE WITH 3 BR. AND 1 BATH , THIS CABIN HAS A COMPLETE SEPTIC SYSTEM AND ALL PLUMBING IS INSTALLED BUT DOES NEED A WELL DRILLED . CABIN NEEDS A FEW ITEMS COMPLETED . PLEASE MAKE APPOINTMENT TO SEE YOU WON'T BE DISAPOINTED. LOCATED IN BUCK RunCOMMUNITY.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Great view
• 1.89 acre lot

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• GREAT VIEW
• COMPLETE SEPTIC SYSTEM
• ALL PLUMBING INSTALLED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $56 ($670/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Chestnut Ridge SD (rural): math 41% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #183 of 539 in PA (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Bedford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (8.9% local appreciation)).
• Bedford County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 255 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $69k (35%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $114,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 255 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.84%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $223,000
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: -41.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
384 Scrub Oak Rd	0.17mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,300 (-3%)	13mo	$215,000	$165	71
190 Rocklick Hollow Rd	0.43mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,530 (+14%)	5mo	$223,000	$146	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.87% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $64,439
• Equity at exit: $106,539

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.08×
• Total profit: $185,073
• Equity at exit: $219,358

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15554

• Home prices YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,216 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,950/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$6
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,145

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $6 · $72/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 255 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 254 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 253 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $130,000 Active 252 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $130,000 Active 249 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $130,000 Active 248 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $130,000 Active 247 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $130,000 Active 246 DOM
9. 2026-05-05
   status Active 409-char remark

   Show marketing remark (409 chars)

   LOOKING FOR QUIET PLACE AWAY FROM HOME WITH A GREAT VIEW . IN GATED COMMUNITY WITH ABUNDANCE OF WILDLIFE AND PEACE & QUIET. THIS CABIN CAN FILL THE ENVELOPE WITH 3 BR. AND 1 BATH , THIS CABIN HAS A COMPLETE SEPTIC SYSTEM AND ALL PLUMBING IS INSTALLED BUT DOES NEED A WELL DRILLED . CABIN NEEDS A FEW ITEMS COMPLETED . PLEASE MAKE APPOINTMENT TO SEE YOU WON'T BE DISAPOINTED. LOCATED IN BUCK RunCOMMUNITY.

10. 2026-04-29
    historical 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    LOOKING FOR QUIET PLACE AWAY FROM HOME WITH A GREAT VIEW . IN GATED COMMUNITY WITH ABUNDANCE OF WILDLIFE AND PEACE & QUIET. THIS CABIN CAN FILL THE ENVELOPE WITH 3 BR. AND 1 BATH , THIS CABIN HAS A COMPLETE SEPTIC SYSTEM AND ALL PLUMBING IS INSTALLED BUT DOES NEED A WELL DRILLED . CABIN NEEDS A FEW ITEMS COMPLETED . PLEASE MAKE APPOINTMENT TO SEE YOU WON'T BE DISAPOINTED. LOCATED IN BUCK RunCOMMUNITY.

11. 2026-04-25
    status Active 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    LOOKING FOR QUIET PLACE AWAY FROM HOME WITH A GREAT VIEW . IN GATED COMMUNITY WITH ABUNDANCE OF WILDLIFE AND PEACE & QUIET. THIS CABIN CAN FILL THE ENVELOPE WITH 3 BR. AND 1 BATH , THIS CABIN HAS A COMPLETE SEPTIC SYSTEM AND ALL PLUMBING IS INSTALLED BUT DOES NEED A WELL DRILLED . CABIN NEEDS A FEW ITEMS COMPLETED . PLEASE MAKE APPOINTMENT TO SEE YOU WON'T BE DISAPOINTED. LOCATED IN BUCK RunCOMMUNITY.

12. 2026-04-25
    price $130,000 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    LOOKING FOR QUIET PLACE AWAY FROM HOME WITH A GREAT VIEW . IN GATED COMMUNITY WITH ABUNDANCE OF WILDLIFE AND PEACE & QUIET. THIS CABIN CAN FILL THE ENVELOPE WITH 3 BR. AND 1 BATH , THIS CABIN HAS A COMPLETE SEPTIC SYSTEM AND ALL PLUMBING IS INSTALLED BUT DOES NEED A WELL DRILLED . CABIN NEEDS A FEW ITEMS COMPLETED . PLEASE MAKE APPOINTMENT TO SEE YOU WON'T BE DISAPOINTED. LOCATED IN BUCK RunCOMMUNITY.

13. 2025-12-02
    historical 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    LOOKING FOR QUIET PLACE AWAY FROM HOME WITH A GREAT VIEW . IN GATED COMMUNITY WITH ABUNDANCE OF WILDLIFE AND PEACE & QUIET. THIS CABIN CAN FILL THE ENVELOPE WITH 3 BR. AND 1 BATH , THIS CABIN HAS A COMPLETE SEPTIC SYSTEM AND ALL PLUMBING IS INSTALLED BUT DOES NEED A WELL DRILLED . CABIN NEEDS A FEW ITEMS COMPLETED . PLEASE MAKE APPOINTMENT TO SEE YOU WON'T BE DISAPOINTED. LOCATED IN BUCK RunCOMMUNITY.

14. 2025-07-09
    price $189,000 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    LOOKING FOR QUIET PLACE AWAY FROM HOME WITH A GREAT VIEW . IN GATED COMMUNITY WITH ABUNDANCE OF WILDLIFE AND PEACE & QUIET. THIS CABIN CAN FILL THE ENVELOPE WITH 3 BR. AND 1 BATH , THIS CABIN HAS A COMPLETE SEPTIC SYSTEM AND ALL PLUMBING IS INSTALLED BUT DOES NEED A WELL DRILLED . CABIN NEEDS A FEW ITEMS COMPLETED . PLEASE MAKE APPOINTMENT TO SEE YOU WON'T BE DISAPOINTED. LOCATED IN BUCK RunCOMMUNITY.

15. 2025-04-29
    listed $199,000 Active 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    LOOKING FOR QUIET PLACE AWAY FROM HOME WITH A GREAT VIEW . IN GATED COMMUNITY WITH ABUNDANCE OF WILDLIFE AND PEACE & QUIET. THIS CABIN CAN FILL THE ENVELOPE WITH 3 BR. AND 1 BATH , THIS CABIN HAS A COMPLETE SEPTIC SYSTEM AND ALL PLUMBING IS INSTALLED BUT DOES NEED A WELL DRILLED . CABIN NEEDS A FEW ITEMS COMPLETED . PLEASE MAKE APPOINTMENT TO SEE YOU WON'T BE DISAPOINTED. LOCATED IN BUCK RunCOMMUNITY.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,586
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,950
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,167
• − Management: −$1,167
• − HOA: −$72
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$1,484
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$356
• After-tax cash flow: $1,026/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This cabin requires moderate repairs and maintenance, including a septic system and well drilling, to improve its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Septic system — No septic system is mentioned.
• Major Well drilling — No well is mentioned in the listing.
• Minor Exterior paint — Slight wear on exterior siding.
• Minor Interior paint — Slight wear on interior walls.
• Minor Landscaping — Basic landscaping with a picnic table and deck.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances both resale and rental value.
• Both Septic system and well drilling — Improves both resale and rental value by providing basic utilities.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Septic system · No septic system is mentioned.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Well drilling · No well is mentioned in the listing.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior paint · Slight wear on exterior siding.	Minor	$500–3,000
Interior paint · Slight wear on interior walls.	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Basic landscaping with a picnic table and deck.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$31,500–109,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Septic system and well drilling — Improves both resale and rental value by providing basic utilities. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chestnut Ridge SD
• NCES district ID: 4205880
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,762
• Composite: 42.63/100
• National rank: #3185
• State rank: #183 of 539 in PA

Livability — Napier

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,298

Population outlook (Bedford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,395 people
• By 2030: 43,353 · -4.5%
• By 2040: 38,858 · -14.4%
• By 2050: 34,162 · -24.7%
• By 2075: 24,868 · -45.2%
• By 2100: 16,910 · -62.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 6% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bedford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.6) · D 15.4% · R 84.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.8pp · 2024: -68.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.6 2020: R+67.7 2016: R+67.4 2012: R+54.9 2008: R+44.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.87%
• Current HPI: 229.8942
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-34.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Relisted — AHARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Delisted — AHARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Relisted — AHARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $130,000 AHARMLS
• 2025-12-02 Delisted — AHARMLS
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $189,000 AHARMLS
• 2025-04-29 Listed $199,000 AHARMLS