2509 Independence Ln

St. Cloud, FL 34772

$169,000B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,476 sqft · Built 1990 · Manufactured · Pending · 89 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,184/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax + insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$120
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $601/mo
• Annual: $7,211/yr
• Cap rate: 10.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.24%
• DSCR: 1.68
• 1% rule: 1.29%
• Cash to close: $47,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $601 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $159k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Neptune Elementary School (math 42% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,366 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 993 students, 46% FRL); St. Cloud High School (math 32% / reading 50%, grade F, #289 of 667 statewide, top 44%, 2,264 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 879 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $73k; list at $169k implies a 131% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 4.0% in St. Cloud — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.