2509 Independence Ln · St. Cloud, FL 34772

$169,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,476 sqft · Manufactured public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1990 5,569 sqft lot Est $233k · 28% under $120/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Virtually Staged. Priced $61,000 below recent appraisal! Nestled within the gated, 55+ community of Teka Village, this charming two-bedroom home features an extremely rare oversized two-car garage (19 x 36), plus a covered carport, an open living space, and a rear deck with a peaceful view, offering the perfect space for a relaxing living experience. The neighborhood encourages a leisurely pace of life where golf carts are permitted for convenient transportation, and residents can enjoy a variety of activities and events at the clubhouse. In addition, the indoor pool, fitness center, and shuffleboard courts support an active lifestyle and meaningful social connections with neighbors. Locati

Key facts

• Gated community
• Fitness center
• Shuffleboard courts

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• INDOOR POOL
• FITNESS CENTER
• SHUFFLEBOARD COURTS
• CLUBHOUSE
• GOLF CARTS PERMITTED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential — Manufactured Home; Property sub type: Double wide; Zoning: SPUD; Homestead exemption: Yes; Association requires buyer approval; Community features: community mailbox, golf carts OK, association-owned recreation
• Financial info: Total monthly fees: $120; Total annual fees: $1,440
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA required ($120) — includes common area taxes, pool, and recreational facilities; Association amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, gated community, pool, shuffleboard court; Senior community; Pets allowed (max ~60 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces) with 35x19 garage dimensions; Covered parking; Driveway; Garage door opener; Open parking; 1-car carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; High-speed/BB internet available; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Single-story; Home faces west; Crawlspace foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Paved lot; Trees / landscaped

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range (stove); Range hood; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Thermostat; Wet bar; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup inside; Dryer hookup (electric); Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $601 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $159k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 4.0% in St. Cloud — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Neptune Elementary School (math 42% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,366 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 993 students, 46% FRL); St. Cloud High School (math 32% / reading 50%, grade F, #289 of 667 statewide, top 44%, 2,264 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 868 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $73k; list at $169k implies a 131% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,860 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.24%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $233,208
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2494 Longpine Ln	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,495 (+1%)	9mo	$172,480	$115	85
2496 Longpine Ln	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,502 (+2%)	11mo	$211,850	$141	84
2472 Independence Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,502 (+2%)	8mo	$241,000	$160	78
4703 Lanca Ln	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-12%)	8mo	$205,000	$158	68
2520 Longpine Ln	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-12%)	13mo	$230,000	$177	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $9,367
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $51,285
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34772

• Home prices YoY: -32.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 868
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,184 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $577/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$120
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $601

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,424

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2478 Pine Chase Cir Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1383	$2,310	$1.67	4d	1	0.49mi
3221 Villa Way Cir Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,650	$1.20	24d	1	0.55mi
4501 Burrowing Owl Loop Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1560	$2,200	$1.41	18d	1	0.58mi
4536 Burrowing Owl Loop Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1808	$2,650	$1.47	24d	1	0.62mi
4329 Eagle Trail Bnd Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1560	$2,100	$1.35	22d	1	0.67mi
2438 Pine Chase Cir Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1482	$2,199	$1.48	3d	1	0.70mi
4469 Eagle Trail Bnd Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1566	$2,200	$1.40	24d	1	0.73mi
2850 Wadeview Loop Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1875	$2,300	$1.23	24d	1	0.76mi
4358 Restful Fallow Cv Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1560	$2,300	$1.47	24d	1	0.76mi
4346 Restful Fallow Cv Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1560	$2,300	$1.47	24d	1	0.76mi
4367 Ranch House Rd Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1560	$2,050	$1.31	24d	1	0.77mi
4348 Ranch House Rd Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1808	$2,200	$1.22	24d	1	0.81mi
4240 Settlers Ct Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1435	$2,300	$1.60	24d	1	0.89mi
3085 Soldier City Way Unit 203 St Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1045	$1,850	$1.77	24d	1	0.92mi
3085 Soldier City Way Unit 202 St Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,800	$1.60	24d	1	0.92mi
3075 Soldier City Way Unit 202 St Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,800	$1.60	20d	1	0.92mi
3075 Soldier City Way Unit 103 St Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1045	$1,850	$1.77	24d	1	0.92mi
3075 Soldier City Way Unit 101 St Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1045	$1,850	$1.77	4d	1	0.92mi
3075 Soldier City Way Unit 102 St Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1045	$1,800	$1.72	24d	1	0.92mi
3065 Soldier City Way Unit 202 St Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,800	$1.60	20d	1	0.93mi
3100 Soldier City Way St Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1085	$1,875	$1.73	3d	6	0.94mi
4651 Sidesaddle Trl Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1695	$2,195	$1.29	18d	1	1.00mi
4371 Vibernum Ave Unit A St Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,400	$1.32	24d	1	1.04mi
4377 Vibernum Ave Unit A St Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,400	$1.32	24d	1	1.04mi
3010 Camber Dr Saint Cloud, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$1,971	$1.96	2d	18	1.07mi
4848 Shady Pines Dr Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1610	$2,400	$1.49	15d	1	1.09mi
5134 Arrowfeather Ct Unit A St Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,350	$1.29	16d	1	1.12mi
5134 Arrowfeather Ct Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,350	$1.29	18d	1	1.12mi
5100 Clay Whaley Rd Unit 5100 St Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1823	$2,250	$1.23	24d	1	1.17mi
4215 Red Bird Ave Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1587	$2,395	$1.51	3d	1	1.19mi
3875 Knotty Pine St Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1608	$2,150	$1.34	24d	1	1.19mi
5172 Clay Whaley Rd Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1823	$2,240	$1.23	13d	1	1.26mi
5174 Clay Whaley Rd Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1664	$2,290	$1.38	24d	1	1.27mi
5176 Clay Whaley Rd Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1664	$2,350	$1.41	22d	1	1.27mi
5191 Loyalty Dr Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,250	$1.26	24d	1	1.27mi
5000 Revolutionary Way Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,100	$1.53	24d	1	1.32mi
5080 Revolutionary Way Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1365	$2,350	$1.72	24d	1	1.33mi
4988 Prairie Preserve Run Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1354	$2,295	$1.69	24d	1	1.37mi
3528 Bay Ct Saint Cloud, FL	2.0	1.0	884	$1,495	$1.69	24d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $120 · $1,440/yr
• Likely covers: poolgymsecurity

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $169,000 Pending 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 86 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,000 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $169,000 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $169,000 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-05-21
    price $169,000
14. 2026-04-07
    price $185,000
15. 2026-03-18
    listed $210,000 Active
16. 1990-06-22
    soldstatus $73,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $577 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,403 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$826/yr (+$69/mo · 143.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,213
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$577
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,097
• − Management: −$2,097
• − HOA: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $4,774
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,146
• After-tax cash flow: $6,065/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osceola
• NCES district ID: 1201470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,528
• Composite: 35.7/100
• National rank: #4865
• State rank: #60 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. Cloud

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Cloud, FL
• County: Osceola County · 410,217 people
• City population: 29,247
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,390
• Household income: $97,868
• Rent vs Own: 17.2% rent · 82.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 443.0

Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,624 people
• By 2030: 511,823 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 642,986 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 774,552 · +73.0%
• By 2075: 1,078,144 · +140.9%
• By 2100: 1,269,660 · +183.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 19% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 20% Cuban 2% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 36% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+13.8 2016: D+25.0 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -132.55%
• Current HPI: 274.6517
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.30%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+130.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $169,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Listed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1990-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $73,200 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $577 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.