127 Allison Dr

Danville, VA 24541

$199,900D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,463 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Active · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,364/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $-102/mo
• Annual: $-1,227/yr
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.19%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-102 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (9.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (31.8% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $136k (31.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#91 in VA, #2,952 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, crime D-, commute F.
• Danville City Public School District (town): math 30% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #128 of 131 in VA (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Park Avenue Elementary (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,069 of 1,108 statewide, top 97%, 366 students, 98% FRL); O. Trent Bonner Middle (math 33% / reading 53%, grade D-, #288 of 342 statewide, top 85%, 678 students, 91% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 71% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 245 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 54 units permitted in Danville city in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Danville County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $200k implies a 369% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.