127 Allison Dr · Danville, VA 24541

$199,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,463 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1962 Est $202k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Totally remodeled throughout. Electric, floors, cabinets, HVAC and paint this one is move in ready.

Key facts

• Built 1962
• Listed 13 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount reported

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; R1 zoning
• Construction: Brick construction; Below-grade finished area (partially finished basement)
• Exterior features: Porch; Fenced yard; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating
• Interior features: Electric range; Microwave; Hardwood floors; Full, partially finished basement
• Laundry & utility: Basement utility space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-102 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (9.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (31.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (31.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#91 in VA, #2,952 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, crime D-, commute F.
• Danville City Public School District (town): math 30% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #128 of 131 in VA (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Park Avenue Elementary (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,069 of 1,108 statewide, top 97%, 366 students, 98% FRL); O. Trent Bonner Middle (math 33% / reading 53%, grade D-, #288 of 342 statewide, top 85%, 678 students, 91% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 71% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 245 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 54 units permitted in Danville city in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Danville County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $200k implies a 369% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,361 (31.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.19%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $201,894
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
130 Huntington Pl	0.35mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,448 (-1%)	7mo	$194,900	$135	69
137 Naples St	0.38mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,482 (+1%)	15mo	$225,000	$152	63
4180 Riverside Dr #802	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,266 (-14%)	1mo	$316,000	$250	61
302 Tyler Ave	0.49mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,469 (+0%)	15mo	$167,310	$114	57
127 Concord St	0.31mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,296 (-11%)	10mo	$172,500	$133	54
239 Allison Dr	0.15mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,648 (+13%)	17mo	$198,100	$120	52
113 Grandin Ct	0.22mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,635 (+12%)	18mo	$226,000	$138	48
1244 Westover Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,263 (-14%)	8mo	$235,000	$186	39
369 Martin Ave	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,682 (+15%)	16mo	$232,000	$138	34
1427 Blair Loop Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,379 (-6%)	21mo	$220,000	$160	32
1459 Blair Loop Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,572 (+8%)	24mo	$295,000	$188	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-39,010
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-42,777
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24541

• Home prices YoY: -17.1%
• Active inventory: 245
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,364 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $575/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $-102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,493

Max offer price $181,833

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
119 Martin Ave Danville, VA	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,700	$1.55	43d	1	0.14mi
671 Park Ave Danville, VA	2.0	1.0	942	$1,100	$1.17	43d	1	0.23mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,900 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,900 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,900 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 99-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $199,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $575 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,639 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,064/yr (+$89/mo · 185.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,363
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$575
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,309
• − Management: −$1,309
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$4,842
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,162
• After-tax cash flow: $-65/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Danville City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101110
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $31,952
• Composite: 30.23/100
• National rank: #6298
• State rank: #128 of 131 in VA

Livability — Danville

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #91
• US rank: #2952

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Danville, VA
• County: Danville City · 59,055 people
• City population: 59,055
• Metro: Danville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 28,042
• Household income: $51,427
• Rent vs Own: 46.3% rent · 53.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1399.0

Population outlook (Danville County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 40,989 people
• By 2030: 40,432 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 39,255 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 38,035 · -7.2%
• By 2075: 35,612 · -13.1%
• By 2100: 30,365 · -25.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 39% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Danville

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.1) · D 60.1% · R 39.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: 19.1pp · 2024: 21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.1 2020: D+22.1 2016: D+19.9 2012: D+22.1 2008: D+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.28%
• Current HPI: 238.5992
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Danville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+369.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $199,900 DRRAR
• 1994-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $42,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $575 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.