4327 Hoatzin Ct

Missouri City, TX 77459

$310,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,893 sqft · Built 2000 · SingleFamily · Pending · 108 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,423/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax + insurance: −$750
• HOA: −$76
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$509
• Net cashflow: $-538/mo
• Annual: $-6,454/yr
• Cap rate: 4.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.44%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $86,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-538 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (30.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (21.8% below list).
• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $215k (30.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.