4327 Hoatzin Ct · Missouri City, TX 77459

$310,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,893 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 108 Days on market

Built 2000 8,794 sqft lot $164/sqft · 8% below area Est $339k · 8% under $76/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully well maintained one story home at First Colony community. 4 bedrooms, 2 full bath. Tile and wood flooring, 3 bed rooms carpet. AC & Furnace less than 5 years old. Energy saving windows and blinds. Ceiling fan in all rooms. Large kitchen with lot of cabinets. No backyard neighbors. Beautiful yard with sprinkler system. Easy access to Hwy6,US-59,US-90, less than 15 miles to Medical Center. Major retail and business close proximity.

Key facts

• Easy access to hwy6
• Large kitchen
• Sprinkler system

Tags

• ENERGY SAVING WINDOWS
• LARGE KITCHEN
• NO BACKYARD NEIGHBORS
• SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• EASY ACCESS TO HWY6
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO RETAIL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-538 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (30.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (30.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,995 (30.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.44%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $338,763
• List price: $310,000
• Delta: -8.49%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4015 Creek Ridge Ln	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,906 (+1%)	1mo	$309,500	$162	68
2931 Double Lake Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,856 (-2%)	4mo	$315,000	$170	67
2611 Plantation Hollow Ct	0.44mi	3/2.0	2,102 (+11%)	2mo	$385,000	$183	59
3206 Rimrock Dr	0.52mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,025 (+7%)	1mo	$271,000	$134	56
3122 Rimrock Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,060 (+9%)	2mo	$360,000	$175	54
3010 Granite Lake Dr	0.40mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,025 (+7%)	14mo	$348,000	$172	51
2802 Calender Lake Dr	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,079 (+10%)	10mo	$330,000	$159	48
3663 Duncaster Dr	0.57mi	3/2.5	1,768 (-7%)	19mo	$265,000	$150	44
3559 Duncaster Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,630 (-14%)	5mo	$269,999	$166	41
4806 Summer Lks	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,132 (+13%)	8mo	$379,000	$178	35
3534 Palm Grove Dr	0.68mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,051 (+8%)	23mo	$250,000	$122	29
3603 Duncaster Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,636 (-14%)	23mo	$249,900	$153	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-73,694
• Equity at exit: $65,016

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.37×
• Total profit: $-118,769
• Equity at exit: $60,220

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1215
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,423 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax from tax record: −$621 /mo · $7,454/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$76
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$509
• Net cashflow: $-538

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,104

Max offer price $214,995

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-362	-5% $-450	+0% $-538	+5% $-626	+10% $-713
Rent	-10% $-729	-5% $-634	+0% $-538	+5% $-442	+10% $-346
Rate	-1.0pp $-382	-0.5pp $-459	base $-538	+0.5pp $-618	+1.0pp $-700

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,500
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2828 Lake Colony Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2494	$2,300	$0.92	13d	1	0.47mi
2713 Double Lake Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2623	$2,700	$1.03	21d	1	0.48mi
2608 Grand Plantation Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	2150	$2,450	$1.14	13d	1	0.49mi
2712 Double Lake Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2623	$2,700	$1.03	44d	1	0.52mi
3611 Duncaster Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	1926	$2,100	$1.09	20d	1	0.65mi
4340 Lake Walk Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2100	$2,600	$1.24	22d	1	0.74mi
3327 Shady Glen Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2232	$2,250	$1.01	13d	1	0.94mi
22 Chapparal Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,000	$1.33	44d	1	1.02mi
4715 Rainbow Run Sugar Land, TX	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,975	$1.27	44d	1	1.12mi
2120 Bermuda Dunes Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2100	$2,200	$1.05	25d	1	1.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $76 · $912/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 449-char remark

   Show marketing remark (449 chars)

   Beautifully well maintained one story home at First Colony community. 4 bedrooms, 2 full bath. Tile and wood flooring, 3 bed rooms carpet. AC & Furnace less than 5 years old. Energy saving windows and blinds. Ceiling fan in all rooms. Large kitchen with lot of cabinets. No backyard neighbors. Beautiful yard with sprinkler system. Easy access to Hwy6,US-59,US-90, less than 15 miles to Medical Center. Major retail and business close proximity.

2. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 449-char remark

   Show marketing remark (449 chars)

   Beautifully well maintained one story home at First Colony community. 4 bedrooms, 2 full bath. Tile and wood flooring, 3 bed rooms carpet. AC & Furnace less than 5 years old. Energy saving windows and blinds. Ceiling fan in all rooms. Large kitchen with lot of cabinets. No backyard neighbors. Beautiful yard with sprinkler system. Easy access to Hwy6,US-59,US-90, less than 15 miles to Medical Center. Major retail and business close proximity.

3. 2026-04-07
   price $310,000 449-char remark

   Show marketing remark (449 chars)

   Beautifully well maintained one story home at First Colony community. 4 bedrooms, 2 full bath. Tile and wood flooring, 3 bed rooms carpet. AC & Furnace less than 5 years old. Energy saving windows and blinds. Ceiling fan in all rooms. Large kitchen with lot of cabinets. No backyard neighbors. Beautiful yard with sprinkler system. Easy access to Hwy6,US-59,US-90, less than 15 miles to Medical Center. Major retail and business close proximity.

4. 2026-02-23
   price $325,000 449-char remark

   Show marketing remark (449 chars)

   Beautifully well maintained one story home at First Colony community. 4 bedrooms, 2 full bath. Tile and wood flooring, 3 bed rooms carpet. AC & Furnace less than 5 years old. Energy saving windows and blinds. Ceiling fan in all rooms. Large kitchen with lot of cabinets. No backyard neighbors. Beautiful yard with sprinkler system. Easy access to Hwy6,US-59,US-90, less than 15 miles to Medical Center. Major retail and business close proximity.

5. 2026-01-23
   listed $330,000 Active 449-char remark

   Show marketing remark (449 chars)

   Beautifully well maintained one story home at First Colony community. 4 bedrooms, 2 full bath. Tile and wood flooring, 3 bed rooms carpet. AC & Furnace less than 5 years old. Energy saving windows and blinds. Ceiling fan in all rooms. Large kitchen with lot of cabinets. No backyard neighbors. Beautiful yard with sprinkler system. Easy access to Hwy6,US-59,US-90, less than 15 miles to Medical Center. Major retail and business close proximity.

6. 2009-08-20
   soldstatus
7. 2009-08-06
   soldstatus 353-char remark

   Show marketing remark (353 chars)

   HIGHLY SOUGHT AFTER ONE STORY FOUR BEDROOM ON CUL DE SAC LOT. RECENTLY UPDATED WITH NEW APPLIANCES, CARPET, LIGHT FIXTURES. OPEN KITCHEN WITH REFURBISHED CABINETS AND STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES. KITCHEN OPENS TO SPACIOUS DEN WITH WOOD FLOORING. FORMAL DINING PLUS 4 FULL BEDROOMS! WASHER AND DRYER NEGOTIABLE. THIS ONE IS DEFINITELY WORTH THE LOOK!

8. 2009-07-21
   historical 353-char remark

   Show marketing remark (353 chars)

   HIGHLY SOUGHT AFTER ONE STORY FOUR BEDROOM ON CUL DE SAC LOT. RECENTLY UPDATED WITH NEW APPLIANCES, CARPET, LIGHT FIXTURES. OPEN KITCHEN WITH REFURBISHED CABINETS AND STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES. KITCHEN OPENS TO SPACIOUS DEN WITH WOOD FLOORING. FORMAL DINING PLUS 4 FULL BEDROOMS! WASHER AND DRYER NEGOTIABLE. THIS ONE IS DEFINITELY WORTH THE LOOK!

9. 2009-02-28
   listed $169,900 353-char remark

   Show marketing remark (353 chars)

   HIGHLY SOUGHT AFTER ONE STORY FOUR BEDROOM ON CUL DE SAC LOT. RECENTLY UPDATED WITH NEW APPLIANCES, CARPET, LIGHT FIXTURES. OPEN KITCHEN WITH REFURBISHED CABINETS AND STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES. KITCHEN OPENS TO SPACIOUS DEN WITH WOOD FLOORING. FORMAL DINING PLUS 4 FULL BEDROOMS! WASHER AND DRYER NEGOTIABLE. THIS ONE IS DEFINITELY WORTH THE LOOK!

10. 2008-08-31
    historical
11. 2008-07-01
    listed $159,900
12. 2008-06-30
    historical
13. 2008-02-01
    listed $159,900
14. 2005-08-08
    soldstatus
15. 2005-06-06
    historical
16. 2005-04-13
    listed $167,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,454 · $621/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,454 · $621/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,077
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,365
• − Property taxes: −$7,454
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,326
• − Management: −$2,326
• − HOA: −$912
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$11,875
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,850
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,604/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Missouri City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #10308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Missouri City, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 123,513
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+85.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $310,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $325,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $330,000 HARMLS
• 2009-08-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-08-06 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2009-07-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-02-28 Listed $169,900 HARMLS
• 2008-08-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-07-01 Listed $159,900 HARMLS
• 2008-06-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-02-01 Listed $159,900 HARMLS
• 2005-08-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-06-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2005-04-13 Listed $167,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,454 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.