50400 Bayside Ave

Harris, MN 55069

$400,000F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,598 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,849/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax + insurance: −$678
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$598
• Net cashflow: $-525/mo
• Annual: $-6,302/yr
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.91%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $112,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-525 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $307k (23.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $285k (28.8% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $285k (28.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#761 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rush City Public School District (rural): math 37% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #195 of 301 in MN (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 362 units permitted in Chisago County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chisago County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 34y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?