50400 Bayside Ave · Harris, MN 55069

$400,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,598 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1965 10,497 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Here is a 4 bedroom 1 bathroom home on West Rush Lake. Home needs work.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1965

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: On waterfront (lake front) with sandy lake bottom; Road between home and water: no; Road frontage on county road and unpaved streets; public road maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with automatic door opener; 2-car garage (approx. 30 x 28); Gravel parking areas
• Utilities: Well water; Private sewer (holding tank); 100 amp electric service with circuit breakers; Propane fuel
• Home design: Residential property; One and a half stories; Main floor primary bedroom; Pitched asphalt roof (age 8 years or less)
• Construction: Block construction; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Side porch; Dock with lake access; Panoramic lake view; Light tree coverage; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with center island; Kitchen window; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (including a main-floor bedroom)
• Bathrooms: Main-floor full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Boiler heating; Hot water heating; Fireplace heat source; Ductless mini-split cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Vaulted ceiling; Natural woodwork; Sun room; Living/Dining room layout; Water filtration system; Water softener (owned)
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-525 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $307k (23.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $285k (28.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $285k (28.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#761 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rush City Public School District (rural): math 37% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #195 of 301 in MN (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 362 units permitted in Chisago County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chisago County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 34y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $284,885 (28.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.91%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-98,216
• Equity at exit: $59,641

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-128,392
• Equity at exit: $34,585

Cash invested: $112,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55069

• Home prices YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,849 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax from tax record: −$445 /mo · $5,340/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$598
• Net cashflow: $-525

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,514

Max offer price $307,225

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,000
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-27
   listed $400,000 Active
3. 2024-09-22
   historical
4. 2024-05-07
   price $529,900
5. 2024-03-18
   listed $549,900 Active
6. 2024-03-08
   price $549,900
7. 2024-03-08
   historical
8. 2023-09-07
   historical
9. 2023-08-31
   price $559,900
10. 2023-07-17
    price $569,900
11. 2023-07-01
    status Active
12. 2023-06-29
    historical Contingent - Sale of Another Property
13. 2023-06-20
    listed $589,900 Active
14. 2020-11-17
    soldstatus $390,000 Sold
15. 2020-11-17
    soldstatus $390,000
16. 2020-09-15
    status Pending
17. 2020-09-10
    listed $375,000 Active
18. 2018-08-07
    soldstatus $316,000 Sold
19. 2018-08-07
    soldstatus $316,100
20. 2018-06-20
    status Pending
21. 2018-06-15
    historical Contingent - Inspection
22. 2018-06-07
    listed $319,900 Active
23. 1992-10-04
    soldstatus $96,150
24. 1992-10-04
    soldstatus $96,150
25. 1992-06-30
    listed $99,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,340 · $445/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,340 · $445/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,186
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$5,340
• − Insurance: −$2,798
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,735
• − Management: −$2,735
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable loss: −$13,464
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,231
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,071/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rush City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2732550
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $60,045
• Composite: 37.08/100
• National rank: #4499
• State rank: #195 of 301 in MN

Livability — Harris

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #761
• US rank: #18834

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,353
• Population (ZIP): 5,936

Population outlook (Chisago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,187 people
• By 2030: 55,036 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 53,293 · -3.4%
• By 2050: 49,157 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 38,399 · -30.4%
• By 2100: 24,646 · -55.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 8% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chisago

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.5% · R 64.9% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.3pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+29.2 2016: R+30.5 2012: R+12.6 2008: R+10.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.49%
• Current HPI: 428.9296
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+300.4% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Listed $400,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-22 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-07 Price Changed $529,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-18 Listed $549,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-08 Price Changed $549,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-08 Coming Soon — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-07 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-31 Price Changed $559,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-17 Price Changed $569,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-01 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-29 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-20 Listed $589,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $390,000 Public Records
• 2020-11-17 Sold (MLS) $390,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-15 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-10 Listed $375,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $316,100 Public Records
• 2018-08-07 Sold (MLS) $316,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-20 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-15 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-07 Listed $319,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $96,150 Public Records
• 1992-10-04 Sold (MLS) $96,150 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-06-30 Listed $99,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,340 · +16.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.