261 Weathercock Ln

Windcrest, TX 78239

$165,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,528/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$518
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $-176/mo
• Annual: $-2,116/yr
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.58%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-176 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $134k (18.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (7.4% below list).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $134k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#439 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: health & safety D+, crime F, amenities F.
• North East ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #276 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Windcrest El (math 22% / reading 33%, grade F, #2,768 of 4,322 statewide, top 65%, 491 students, 78% FRL); White Middle (math 28% / reading 40%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 944 students, 68% FRL); Roosevelt H S (math 20% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,096 of 1,632 statewide, top 68%, 2,599 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 41% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the North East ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 211 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $165k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.9% in Windcrest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.