5717 Tumbleweed Cir

Brooks, OR 97305

$137,400C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 2002 · Manufactured · Pending · 158 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,608/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$721
• Tax + insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $455/mo
• Annual: $5,459/yr
• Cap rate: 10.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.19%
• DSCR: 1.63
• 1% rule: 1.17%
• Cash to close: $38,472

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $137k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $455 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $137k).
• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $950 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#265 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Gervais SD 1 (town): math 35% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #97 of 183 in OR (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Gervais Elementary School (math 15% / reading 15%, grade F, #392 of 412 statewide, top 96%, 374 students, 75% FRL); Gervais Middle School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #127 of 128 statewide, top 99%, 186 students, 76% FRL); Gervais High School (math 5% / reading 30%, grade F, #137 of 143 statewide, top 96%, 317 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools at 75% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-25 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Gervais SD 1 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 177 active listings in the ZIP; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $137k implies a 439% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.