5717 Tumbleweed Cir · Brooks, OR 97305

$137,400

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 158 Days on market

Built 2002 Est $110k · 25% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Accepted Offer with Contingencies. Low space rent of $530 includes water, sewer, and trash! This beautifully updated, move-in-ready home features an upgraded kitchen w/crown-molded cabinets, granite counters, large eating bar, and newer appliances. Updated flooring throughout. Spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with walk-in closet and tiled shower. Lots of windows for great natural light. Newer HVAC, A/C, and water heater, plus generator wiring. Laundry with sink and plenty of storage. 2 sheds & a carport. Bright, comfortable home!

Key facts

• Wired for generator
• Walk-in closet
• Upgraded kitchen

Tags

• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• TILED SHOWER
• NEWER HVAC
• WIRED FOR GENERATOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $137k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $455 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $137k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#265 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Gervais SD 1 (town): math 35% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #97 of 183 in OR (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Gervais Elementary School (math 15% / reading 15%, grade F, #392 of 412 statewide, top 96%, 374 students, 75% FRL); Gervais Middle School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #127 of 128 statewide, top 99%, 186 students, 76% FRL); Gervais High School (math 5% / reading 30%, grade F, #137 of 143 statewide, top 96%, 317 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools at 75% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-25 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Gervais SD 1 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 177 active listings in the ZIP; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $950 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $137k implies a 439% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $120,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.19%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $109,824
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5844 NE Tumbleweed Cir #5844	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,296 (+4%)	16mo	$114,000	$88	80
5643 Tumbleweed Cir NE	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (-8%)	6mo	$17,000	$15	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $6,651
• Equity at exit: $20,487

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $42,865
• Equity at exit: $11,880

Cash invested: $38,472 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97305

• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,608 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$721
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $456/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $455

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,033

Max offer price $137,400

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $533	-5% $494	+0% $455	+5% $416	+10% $377
Rent	-10% $328	-5% $391	+0% $455	+5% $518	+10% $582
Rate	-1.0pp $524	-0.5pp $490	base $455	+0.5pp $419	+1.0pp $383

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,350
• Closing costs: $4,122
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (551 chars)

   Accepted Offer with Contingencies. Low space rent of $530 includes water, sewer, and trash! This beautifully updated, move-in-ready home features an upgraded kitchen w/crown-molded cabinets, granite counters, large eating bar, and newer appliances. Updated flooring throughout. Spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with walk-in closet and tiled shower. Lots of windows for great natural light. Newer HVAC, A/C, and water heater, plus generator wiring. Laundry with sink and plenty of storage. 2 sheds & a carport. Bright, comfortable home!

2. 2026-04-28
   historical Active under Contract 551-char remark

   Show marketing remark (551 chars)

   Accepted Offer with Contingencies. Low space rent of $530 includes water, sewer, and trash! This beautifully updated, move-in-ready home features an upgraded kitchen w/crown-molded cabinets, granite counters, large eating bar, and newer appliances. Updated flooring throughout. Spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with walk-in closet and tiled shower. Lots of windows for great natural light. Newer HVAC, A/C, and water heater, plus generator wiring. Laundry with sink and plenty of storage. 2 sheds & a carport. Bright, comfortable home!

3. 2026-03-09
   price $137,400 551-char remark

   Show marketing remark (551 chars)

   Accepted Offer with Contingencies. Low space rent of $530 includes water, sewer, and trash! This beautifully updated, move-in-ready home features an upgraded kitchen w/crown-molded cabinets, granite counters, large eating bar, and newer appliances. Updated flooring throughout. Spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with walk-in closet and tiled shower. Lots of windows for great natural light. Newer HVAC, A/C, and water heater, plus generator wiring. Laundry with sink and plenty of storage. 2 sheds & a carport. Bright, comfortable home!

4. 2026-03-08
   price $137,400
5. 2025-11-21
   listed $139,900 Active
6. 2025-11-18
   listed $139,900 Active 551-char remark

   Show marketing remark (551 chars)

   Accepted Offer with Contingencies. Low space rent of $530 includes water, sewer, and trash! This beautifully updated, move-in-ready home features an upgraded kitchen w/crown-molded cabinets, granite counters, large eating bar, and newer appliances. Updated flooring throughout. Spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with walk-in closet and tiled shower. Lots of windows for great natural light. Newer HVAC, A/C, and water heater, plus generator wiring. Laundry with sink and plenty of storage. 2 sheds & a carport. Bright, comfortable home!

7. 1993-05-01
   soldstatus $25,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $456 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,333 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$877/yr (+$73/mo · 192.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,301
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,697
• − Property taxes: −$456
• − Insurance: −$687
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,544
• − Management: −$1,544
• − Depreciation: −$3,997
• Taxable income: $3,377
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$810
• After-tax cash flow: $4,649/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gervais SD 1
• NCES district ID: 4100015
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $54,447
• Composite: 37.72/100
• National rank: #8768
• State rank: #97 of 183 in OR

Livability — Brooks

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #265
• US rank: #17903

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 45,044

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 44% Two or more races 16% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 3% Native American 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -328.50%
• Current HPI: 296.3428
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+438.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-04-28 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $137,400 WVMLS
• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $137,400 RMLS
• 2025-11-21 Listed $139,900 RMLS
• 2025-11-18 Listed $139,900 WVMLS
• 1993-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $25,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $456 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.