16 N Jefferson St

Carrollton, MO 64633

$50,000A

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,394 sqft · Built 1900 · Other · Active · 106 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,035/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $515/mo
• Annual: $6,181/yr
• Cap rate: 18.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.15%
• DSCR: 2.96
• 1% rule: 2.07%
• Cash to close: $14,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $50k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $515 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($46k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $46k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($346 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#80 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Carrollton R-VII (town): math 31% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #178 of 324 in MO (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carrollton Elementary School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #676 of 1,115 statewide, top 66%, 342 students, 46% FRL); Middle School (math 35% / reading 47%, grade F, #172 of 391 statewide, top 46%, 270 students, 39% FRL); Carrollton Senior High (math 27% / reading 54%, grade F, #238 of 521 statewide, top 46%, 243 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carroll County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 18.7% vs local median 4.8% in Carrollton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.