16 N Jefferson St · Carrollton, MO 64633

$50,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,394 sqft · Other · 106 Days on market

Built 1900 7,492 sqft lot $36/sqft · 45% below area Est $90k · 45% under ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor Special! 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,394 square feet ready for renovation.

Key facts

• 7,492 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 105 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $515 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $46k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.7% vs local median 4.8% in Carrollton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#80 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Carrollton R-VII (town): math 31% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #178 of 324 in MO (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carrollton Elementary School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #676 of 1,115 statewide, top 66%, 342 students, 46% FRL); Middle School (math 35% / reading 47%, grade F, #172 of 391 statewide, top 46%, 270 students, 39% FRL); Carrollton Senior High (math 27% / reading 54%, grade F, #238 of 521 statewide, top 46%, 243 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($346 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Carroll County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($46k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $45,500 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.15%
• DSCR: 2.96
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $90,214
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: -44.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.29×
• Total profit: $60,028
• Equity at exit: $45,044

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.2%
• Equity multiple: 11.78×
• Total profit: $150,951
• Equity at exit: $97,139

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64633

• Home prices YoY: 18.8%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,035 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $230/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $515

Break-even live

Break-even rent $383

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $543	-5% $529	+0% $515	+5% $501	+10% $487
Rent	-10% $433	-5% $474	+0% $515	+5% $556	+10% $597
Rate	-1.0pp $540	-0.5pp $528	base $515	+0.5pp $502	+1.0pp $489

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $50,000 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $50,000 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $50,000 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $50,000 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $50,000 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $50,000 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-03-04
    historical

    Show marketing remark (72 chars)

    Investor Special! 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,394 square feet ready for renovation.

16. 2026-03-04
    listed $50,000 Active 72-char remark

    Show marketing remark (72 chars)

    Investor Special! 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,394 square feet ready for renovation.

17. 2025-12-19
    listed $50,000 Active
18. 2025-10-01
    historical
19. 2025-07-02
    listed $65,000 Active
20. 1996-04-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $230 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $485 · $40/mo
• Expected delta: +$255/yr (+$21/mo · 110.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,415
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$230
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$993
• − Management: −$993
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $5,693
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,366
• After-tax cash flow: $4,815/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carrollton R-VII
• NCES district ID: 2907380
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $39,568
• Composite: 32.2/100
• National rank: #5779
• State rank: #178 of 324 in MO

Livability — Carrollton

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #80
• US rank: #5324

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carrollton, MO
• City population: 4,504
• Population (ZIP): 4,504

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,269 people
• By 2030: 7,866 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 7,021 · -15.1%
• By 2050: 6,213 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 4,619 · -44.1%
• By 2100: 3,249 · -60.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.5) · D 17.4% · R 81.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.2pp toward R · 2008: -31.3pp · 2024: -64.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.5 2020: R+64.4 2016: R+62.7 2012: R+44.6 2008: R+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 42.87%
• Current HPI: 271.4099
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-23.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Listed $50,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-04 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-19 Listed $50,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-01 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-02 Listed $65,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $230 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.