1173 W Calle Trio Los Panchos

Sahuarita, AZ 85629

$229,000D-

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,240 sqft · Built 2015 · SingleFamily · Active · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,894/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax + insurance: −$259
• HOA: −$190
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $-154/mo
• Annual: $-1,850/yr
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.88%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $64,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-154 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (17.3% below list).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($215k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $189k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#43 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sahuarita Unified District (4411) (town): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #63 of 249 in AZ (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 452 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $109k; list at $229k implies a 110% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.8% in Sahuarita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.