1173 W Calle Trio Los Panchos · Sahuarita, AZ 85629

$229,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,240 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 2015 2,004 sqft lot $185/sqft · 10% below area Est $254k · 10% under $190/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WOW look at this beautifully decorated home! It comes fully furnished, all you need is to move in! It's right next to a private resort, park, and pool for homeowners. Just like living in your own destination resort! It's no wonder John Wayne filmed all those westerns in this valley. It's even more beautiful than in the movies! The horizon is accented by tall mountains, and high alpine forests. People come from the world over to visit this valley and you can live here in this beautiful home. There's a spare bedroom here for your guests and a den to relax in. You're sure to love this home right in the heart of southern Arizona. Less than a mile away is fine dining, shopping, banking and everything you need. Make sure to give me a call. I'd love to show it to you.

Key facts

• High alpine forests
• Fully furnished
• Private resort

Tags

• FULLY FURNISHED
• PRIVATE RESORT
• HIGH ALPINE FORESTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-154 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (17.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.8% in Sahuarita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#43 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sahuarita Unified District (4411) (town): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #63 of 249 in AZ (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 444 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($215k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $109k; list at $229k implies a 110% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,391 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.88%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $254,155
• List price: $229,000
• Delta: -9.90%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1116 W Calle Fuente De Carino	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,247 (+1%)	1mo	$280,000	$225	90
1165 W Calle Trios Los Panchos	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,240 (0%)	14mo	$260,000	$210	84
1353 W Via La Noria	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,251 (+1%)	11mo	$230,000	$184	74
1141 W Caminito Mio	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,168 (-6%)	18mo	$250,000	$214	70
15872 S Via Puente Del Valle	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,286 (+4%)	21mo	$315,000	$245	68
1194 W Calle De Sotelo	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,349 (+9%)	14mo	$264,500	$196	68
1212 W Via Cerro Colorado	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,251 (+1%)	21mo	$289,900	$232	66
1166 W Calle Trio Los Panchos	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-10%)	20mo	$240,000	$214	62
1327 W Calle Luis Maria	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,251 (+1%)	22mo	$265,000	$212	61
15968 S Avenida Canica	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-10%)	12mo	$250,000	$223	58
16004 S Avenida Canica	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,388 (+12%)	16mo	$265,000	$191	50
1349 W Vuelta Arvizu	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,388 (+12%)	16mo	$245,000	$177	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-51,846
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-76,912
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85629

• Home prices YoY: -20.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 444
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,894 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$164 /mo · $1,968/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$190
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $-154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,089

Max offer price $201,773

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-24	-5% $-89	+0% $-154	+5% $-219	+10% $-284
Rent	-10% $-304	-5% $-229	+0% $-154	+5% $-79	+10% $-5
Rate	-1.0pp $-39	-0.5pp $-96	base $-154	+0.5pp $-213	+1.0pp $-274

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1260 W Calle de Sotelo Sahuarita, AZ	1.0	1.0	750	$1,800	$2.40	44d	1	0.14mi
920 W Calle Tikal Sahuarita, AZ	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,995	$1.36	20d	1	0.51mi
752 W Paseo Celestial Sahuarita, AZ	3.0	2.5	1378	$1,775	$1.29	4d	1	0.55mi
958 W Calle Las Varitas Sahuarita, AZ	3.0	2.0	1467	$2,199	$1.50	4d	1	0.92mi
281 W Paseo Celestial Sahuarita, AZ	3.0	2.5	1378	$1,750	$1.27	4d	1	0.95mi
94 W Paseo Celestial Sahuarita, AZ	3.0	2.5	1378	$1,700	$1.23	24d	1	1.09mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $190 · $2,280/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $229,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-04-29
    status Active 771-char remark

    Show marketing remark (771 chars)

    WOW look at this beautifully decorated home! It comes fully furnished, all you need is to move in! It's right next to a private resort, park, and pool for homeowners. Just like living in your own destination resort! It's no wonder John Wayne filmed all those westerns in this valley. It's even more beautiful than in the movies! The horizon is accented by tall mountains, and high alpine forests. People come from the world over to visit this valley and you can live here in this beautiful home. There's a spare bedroom here for your guests and a den to relax in. You're sure to love this home right in the heart of southern Arizona. Less than a mile away is fine dining, shopping, banking and everything you need. Make sure to give me a call. I'd love to show it to you.

17. 2026-04-25
    historical 771-char remark

    Show marketing remark (771 chars)

    WOW look at this beautifully decorated home! It comes fully furnished, all you need is to move in! It's right next to a private resort, park, and pool for homeowners. Just like living in your own destination resort! It's no wonder John Wayne filmed all those westerns in this valley. It's even more beautiful than in the movies! The horizon is accented by tall mountains, and high alpine forests. People come from the world over to visit this valley and you can live here in this beautiful home. There's a spare bedroom here for your guests and a den to relax in. You're sure to love this home right in the heart of southern Arizona. Less than a mile away is fine dining, shopping, banking and everything you need. Make sure to give me a call. I'd love to show it to you.

18. 2026-04-20
    status Active 771-char remark

    Show marketing remark (771 chars)

    WOW look at this beautifully decorated home! It comes fully furnished, all you need is to move in! It's right next to a private resort, park, and pool for homeowners. Just like living in your own destination resort! It's no wonder John Wayne filmed all those westerns in this valley. It's even more beautiful than in the movies! The horizon is accented by tall mountains, and high alpine forests. People come from the world over to visit this valley and you can live here in this beautiful home. There's a spare bedroom here for your guests and a den to relax in. You're sure to love this home right in the heart of southern Arizona. Less than a mile away is fine dining, shopping, banking and everything you need. Make sure to give me a call. I'd love to show it to you.

19. 2026-04-18
    historical 771-char remark

    Show marketing remark (771 chars)

    WOW look at this beautifully decorated home! It comes fully furnished, all you need is to move in! It's right next to a private resort, park, and pool for homeowners. Just like living in your own destination resort! It's no wonder John Wayne filmed all those westerns in this valley. It's even more beautiful than in the movies! The horizon is accented by tall mountains, and high alpine forests. People come from the world over to visit this valley and you can live here in this beautiful home. There's a spare bedroom here for your guests and a den to relax in. You're sure to love this home right in the heart of southern Arizona. Less than a mile away is fine dining, shopping, banking and everything you need. Make sure to give me a call. I'd love to show it to you.

20. 2026-04-10
    price $249,900 771-char remark

    Show marketing remark (771 chars)

    WOW look at this beautifully decorated home! It comes fully furnished, all you need is to move in! It's right next to a private resort, park, and pool for homeowners. Just like living in your own destination resort! It's no wonder John Wayne filmed all those westerns in this valley. It's even more beautiful than in the movies! The horizon is accented by tall mountains, and high alpine forests. People come from the world over to visit this valley and you can live here in this beautiful home. There's a spare bedroom here for your guests and a den to relax in. You're sure to love this home right in the heart of southern Arizona. Less than a mile away is fine dining, shopping, banking and everything you need. Make sure to give me a call. I'd love to show it to you.

21. 2026-04-03
    listed $260,000 Active 771-char remark

    Show marketing remark (771 chars)

    WOW look at this beautifully decorated home! It comes fully furnished, all you need is to move in! It's right next to a private resort, park, and pool for homeowners. Just like living in your own destination resort! It's no wonder John Wayne filmed all those westerns in this valley. It's even more beautiful than in the movies! The horizon is accented by tall mountains, and high alpine forests. People come from the world over to visit this valley and you can live here in this beautiful home. There's a spare bedroom here for your guests and a den to relax in. You're sure to love this home right in the heart of southern Arizona. Less than a mile away is fine dining, shopping, banking and everything you need. Make sure to give me a call. I'd love to show it to you.

22. 2015-11-18
    soldstatus $109,271 Closed 664-char remark

    Show marketing remark (664 chars)

    Brand new construction - Energy Star Qualified home which will save you up to 30% on your utility bills every month! Designed for living - Enjoy the open floor plan, larger kitchen and more closet space than in most resale homes. This new home allows you to personalize your dream home, not fix-up someone else's. Quality construction and low cost of ownership with Builder Warranty! A must see! This home is ready for move in now. Our express line includes granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, upgraded maple cabinets, ceiling fan and TV prewires etc. etc. etc. Come visit this beautiful and desirable active adult community! Ready for move in now!

23. 2015-11-18
    soldstatus $109,271 Closed

    Show marketing remark (664 chars)

    Brand new construction - Energy Star Qualified home which will save you up to 30% on your utility bills every month! Designed for living - Enjoy the open floor plan, larger kitchen and more closet space than in most resale homes. This new home allows you to personalize your dream home, not fix-up someone else's. Quality construction and low cost of ownership with Builder Warranty! A must see! This home is ready for move in now. Our express line includes granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, upgraded maple cabinets, ceiling fan and TV prewires etc. etc. etc. Come visit this beautiful and desirable active adult community! Ready for move in now!

24. 2015-11-09
    status Pending
25. 2015-11-05
    listed $113,900 Active
26. 2013-04-19
    soldstatus $408,000
27. 2006-09-13
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,968 · $164/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,968 · $164/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,727
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$1,968
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,818
• − Management: −$1,818
• − HOA: −$2,280
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$5,792
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,390
• After-tax cash flow: $-459/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sahuarita Unified District (4411)
• NCES district ID: 0407300
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $63,564
• Composite: 34.91/100
• National rank: #5072
• State rank: #63 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Sahuarita

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #8414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sahuarita, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 31,668
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 31,668
• Household income: $109,253
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 220.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 17% Black 2% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.38%
• Current HPI: 234.6422
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.31%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+316.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-25 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-20 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-18 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $249,900 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-03 Listed $260,000 MLSSAZ
• 2015-11-18 Sold (MLS) $109,271 MLSSAZ
• 2015-11-18 Sold (MLS) $109,271 MLSSAZ
• 2015-11-09 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2015-11-05 Listed $113,900 MLSSAZ
• 2013-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $408,000 Public Records
• 2006-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+18.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,968 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.