Orchid III B Plan

Sterlington, LA 71280

$316,990D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,061 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,495/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,944
• Tax + insurance: −$618
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $-591/mo
• Annual: $-7,093/yr
• Cap rate: 4.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.83%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $103,809

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $317k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-591 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (21.3% below list).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($307k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $250k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $40k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $37k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#60 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Ouachita Parish (suburban): math 31% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #26 of 98 in LA (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 189 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 345 units permitted in Ouachita Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$64k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.