Orchid III B Plan · Sterlington, LA 71280

$316,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,061 sqft · SingleFamily · 60 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

- Brick & Stucco Exterior - Covered Rear Patio - Two Car Garage with Storage - Open Floor Plan - Three Bedrooms, Two Bathrooms - Recessed Can Lighting in Kitchen & Living Room - Walk-In Pantry - Boot Bench & Drop-Zone in Mud Room - Double Master Vanity - Separate Master Shower - Walk-In Master Closet

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Covered rear patio
• Boot bench drop zone

Tags

• BRICK STUCCO EXTERIOR
• COVERED REAR PATIO
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• RECESSED CAN LIGHTING
• WALK IN PANTRY
• BOOT BENCH DROP ZONE

🏗️ New construction. The $316,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $370,746.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $317k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-591 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#60 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Ouachita Parish (suburban): math 31% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #26 of 98 in LA (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 189 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 345 units permitted in Ouachita Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $40k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $37k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$64k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($307k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $249,500 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.83%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $370,746
• List price: $316,990
• Delta: -14.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9293 Desiard Trce	0.47mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,298 (+12%)	6mo	$501,569	$218	47
105 Brook Orchard Cir	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,149 (+4%)	18mo	$340,000	$158	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $164,309
• Equity at exit: $333,997

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.95×
• Total profit: $513,542
• Equity at exit: $720,278

Cash invested: $103,809 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71280

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,495 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,944
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$463 /mo · $5,561/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $-591

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,243

Max offer price $285,214

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,686
• Closing costs: $11,122
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
492 Cliff Bullock Dr Sterlington, LA	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,495	$1.66	43d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $316,990 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $316,990 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $316,990 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $316,990 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $316,990 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $316,990 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $316,990 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $316,990 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $316,990 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $316,990 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $316,990 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $316,990 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $316,990 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $316,990 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $316,990 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $316,990 Active 40 DOM
17. 2026-04-20
    listed $316,990 Active 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    - Brick & Stucco Exterior - Covered Rear Patio - Two Car Garage with Storage - Open Floor Plan - Three Bedrooms, Two Bathrooms - Recessed Can Lighting in Kitchen & Living Room - Walk-In Pantry - Boot Bench & Drop-Zone in Mud Room - Double Master Vanity - Separate Master Shower - Walk-In Master Closet

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,768
• − Property taxes: −$5,561
• − Insurance: −$1,854
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,395
• − Management: −$2,395
• − Depreciation: −$10,785
• Taxable loss: −$13,818
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,316
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,777/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ouachita Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201200
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -31.00%
• Median HH income: $43,316
• Composite: 32.14/100
• National rank: #5791
• State rank: #26 of 98 in LA

Livability — Sterlington

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #60
• US rank: #7741

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,999

Population outlook (Ouachita County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 163,370 people
• By 2030: 165,520 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 167,652 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 166,699 · +2.0%
• By 2075: 156,348 · -4.3%
• By 2100: 134,102 · -17.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Iranian 2% Danish 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ouachita

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.5% · R 63.3% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.2pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+23.6 2016: R+25.4 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+25.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.14%
• Current HPI: 283.4492
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $316,990 Zillow