2119 15th St

Lubbock, TX 79401

$125,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,436 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,167/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $108/mo
• Annual: $1,300/yr
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.72%
• DSCR: 1.17
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $108 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (6.6% below list).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $117k (6.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Rush El (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 309 students, 72% FRL); Hutchinson Middle (math 57% / reading 63%, grade B, #158 of 1,662 statewide, top 10%, 833 students, 49% FRL); Lubbock H S (math 45% / reading 52%, grade D, #560 of 1,632 statewide, top 35%, 1,839 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 52% at this address vs 38% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lubbock ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.3%/yr); 33 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (6.7% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.