2119 15th St · Lubbock, TX 79401

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,436 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1940 6,375 sqft lot $87/sqft · 64% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Prime investment opportunity in South Overton, just minutes from Texas Tech! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,436 square feet of potential in one of Lubbock's most sought-after rental areas. Ideal for investors looking to expand their portfolio or capitalize on student housing demand. Convenient location near campus, dining, and entertainment. Don't miss your chance to own in this high-demand area!

Key facts

• High-demand area
• Convenient location
• 6,375 sq ft lot

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• HIGH-DEMAND AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Has attached garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built on a 0.15-acre lot
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Fireplace heating option; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan cooling; Gas cooling component
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Fireplace in the family room; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $108 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (6.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $117k (6.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Rush El (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 309 students, 72% FRL); Hutchinson Middle (math 57% / reading 63%, grade B, #158 of 1,662 statewide, top 10%, 833 students, 49% FRL); Lubbock H S (math 45% / reading 52%, grade D, #560 of 1,632 statewide, top 35%, 1,839 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 52% at this address vs 38% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lubbock ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.3%/yr); 33 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.7% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,694 (6.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.72%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $76,202
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: 64.04%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.7% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $54,432
• Equity at exit: $84,204

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.82×
• Total profit: $168,812
• Equity at exit: $157,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79401

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Rents YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,167 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,271/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,030

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $179	-5% $144	+0% $108	+5% $73	+10% $38
Rent	-10% $16	-5% $62	+0% $108	+5% $154	+10% $201
Rate	-1.0pp $171	-0.5pp $140	base $108	+0.5pp $76	+1.0pp $43

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2119 15th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,400	$0.88	45d	1	0.04mi
2117 14th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,250	$1.28	22d	1	0.04mi
2122 16th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1295	$1,025	$0.79	45d	1	0.06mi
2101 14th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	895	$850	$0.95	22d	1	0.11mi
2101 14th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	895	$850	$0.95	45d	1	0.11mi
2220 16th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,300	$0.92	22d	1	0.12mi
2101 16th St Unit 2D Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$825	$0.87	45d	1	0.14mi
2121 17th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1048	$995	$0.95	22d	1	0.16mi
2316 15th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	960	$795	$0.83	22d	1	0.20mi
2317 15th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	45d	1	0.22mi
2123 18th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1328	$949	$0.71	14d	1	0.23mi
2409 13th St Unit 8 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	45d	1	0.32mi
1922 18th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1136	$1,050	$0.92	22d	1	0.33mi
1909 16th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1312	$1,600	$1.22	22d	1	0.33mi
1607 Avenue Y Unit Y Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1532	$2,100	$1.37	14d	1	0.33mi
2124 20th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,150	$0.78	14d	1	0.35mi
2104 20th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1796	$1,700	$0.95	22d	1	0.38mi
2109 20th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1391	$1,200	$0.86	45d	1	0.39mi
1626 Avenue Y Unit 3 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1280	$850	$0.66	45d	1	0.40mi
1619 University Ave Unit 8 Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$700	$0.78	45d	1	0.41mi
1912 20th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1590	$1,000	$0.63	22d	1	0.46mi
2402 21st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1453	$1,500	$1.03	45d	1	0.47mi
1912 21st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1473	$1,025	$0.70	45d	1	0.51mi
2113 22nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1404	$850	$0.61	22d	1	0.51mi
2408 22nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	14d	1	0.54mi
707 Avenue T Lubbock, TX	3.0–4.0	3.0–4.0	1559	$474	$0.30	45d	45	0.56mi
2403 22nd Pl Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1066	$900	$0.84	22d	1	0.60mi
2009 23rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1615	$1,249	$0.77	45d	1	0.60mi
2118 24th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1435	$1,000	$0.70	22d	1	0.62mi
2516 21st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1052	$1,125	$1.07	45d	1	0.62mi
2405 23rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1042	$895	$0.86	22d	1	0.66mi
2404 Avenue U Unit U Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	948	$925	$0.98	45d	1	0.66mi
2404 Avenue U Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	948	$699	$0.74	45d	1	0.66mi
2220 25th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	1.0	1077	$695	$0.65	22d	1	0.67mi
1904 24th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1172	$1,100	$0.94	45d	1	0.70mi
2123 25th St Unit rear Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$950	$0.95	45d	1	0.71mi
2119 25th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1184	$1,200	$1.01	45d	1	0.71mi
2311 25th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,400	$1.00	22d	1	0.71mi
2518 23rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,075	$1.19	45d	1	0.73mi
2511 23rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1428	$1,500	$1.05	22d	1	0.74mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $125,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $160,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $160,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $160,000 Active 17 DOM
18. 2026-05-13
    listed $160,000 Active 405-char remark
19. 2026-04-07
    listed $1,400
20. 1991-02-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,271 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,288 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,016/yr (+$85/mo · 80.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,003
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,271
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,120
• − Management: −$1,120
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$772
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$185
• After-tax cash flow: $1,486/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,741
• Household income: $26,980
• Rent vs Own: 91.1% rent · 8.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1389.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 14% Black 8% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Indo-European 3% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.70%
• Current HPI: 233.4915
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.31%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+8828.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $125,000 LARMLS
• 2026-06-06 Rental Removed $1,400 BUILDIUM
• 2026-05-13 Listed $160,000 LARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed for Rent $1,400 BUILDIUM
• 1991-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,271 · -6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.