1611 Potomac Shores Pkwy #203

Cherry Hill, VA 22026

$399,990D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,162 sqft · Built 2026 · Condo · Active · 126 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,746/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax + insurance: −$667
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$577
• Net cashflow: $-595/mo
• Annual: $-7,142/yr
• Cap rate: 4.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.38%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $111,997

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $400k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-595 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $314k (21.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $275k (31.4% below list).
• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $275k (31.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#310 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Prince William County Public School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #30 of 131 in VA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 150 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,418 units permitted in Prince William County in 2024 (625 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Prince William County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.2% in Cherry Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.