1611 Potomac Shores Pkwy #203 · Cherry Hill, VA 22026

$399,990

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,162 sqft · Condo · 126 Days on market

Built 2026 $344/sqft · 14% below area Est $467k · 14% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-In Ready Emerald Available at Potomac Shores Elevator Condos in Dumfries, VA! This 2nd floor homes features 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, upgraded kitchen with quartz countertops, hard surface flooring throughout (no carpet), balcony, walkable to amenities, future VRE & more! Plus, enjoy all closing costs paid & 1st year of Condo Fees paid with the use of NVR Mortgage * .

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Balcony
• Upgraded kitchen

Tags

• ELEVATOR CONDOS
• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• HARD SURFACE FLOORING
• BALCONY
• WALKABLE TO AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-595 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $314k (21.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $275k (31.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $275k (31.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.2% in Cherry Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#310 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Prince William County Public School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #30 of 131 in VA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 150 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,418 units permitted in Prince William County in 2024 (625 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Prince William County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $274,565 (31.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.38%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $466,691
• List price: $399,990
• Delta: -14.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-106,577
• Equity at exit: $59,640

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-156,978
• Equity at exit: $34,584

Cash invested: $111,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22026

• Home prices YoY: -9.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,746 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$500 /mo · $6,000/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$577
• Net cashflow: $-595

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,499

Max offer price $313,867

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,998
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1601 Potomac Shores Pkwy Dumfries, VA	2.0	2.0	1162	$2,900	$2.50	18d	1	0.18mi
1881 Serviceberry Rd Dumfries, VA	2.0	1.0	1500	$1,950	$1.30	43d	1	0.70mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,990 Active 126 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,990 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,990 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,990 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,990 Active 121 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,990 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,990 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,990 Active 115 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   pricedays on market $399,990 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $429,990 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $429,990 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $429,990 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $429,990 Active 108 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    price $429,990 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Move-In Ready Emerald Available at Potomac Shores Elevator Condos in Dumfries, VA! This 2nd floor homes features 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, upgraded kitchen with quartz countertops, hard surface flooring throughout (no carpet), balcony, walkable to amenities, future VRE & more! Plus, enjoy all closing costs paid & 1st year of Condo Fees paid with the use of NVR Mortgage * .

15. 2026-04-08
    status Active 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Move-In Ready Emerald Available at Potomac Shores Elevator Condos in Dumfries, VA! This 2nd floor homes features 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, upgraded kitchen with quartz countertops, hard surface flooring throughout (no carpet), balcony, walkable to amenities, future VRE & more! Plus, enjoy all closing costs paid & 1st year of Condo Fees paid with the use of NVR Mortgage * .

16. 2026-04-02
    historical 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Move-In Ready Emerald Available at Potomac Shores Elevator Condos in Dumfries, VA! This 2nd floor homes features 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, upgraded kitchen with quartz countertops, hard surface flooring throughout (no carpet), balcony, walkable to amenities, future VRE & more! Plus, enjoy all closing costs paid & 1st year of Condo Fees paid with the use of NVR Mortgage * .

17. 2026-03-10
    price $434,990 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Move-In Ready Emerald Available at Potomac Shores Elevator Condos in Dumfries, VA! This 2nd floor homes features 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, upgraded kitchen with quartz countertops, hard surface flooring throughout (no carpet), balcony, walkable to amenities, future VRE & more! Plus, enjoy all closing costs paid & 1st year of Condo Fees paid with the use of NVR Mortgage * .

18. 2026-02-06
    listed $429,990 Active 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Move-In Ready Emerald Available at Potomac Shores Elevator Condos in Dumfries, VA! This 2nd floor homes features 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, upgraded kitchen with quartz countertops, hard surface flooring throughout (no carpet), balcony, walkable to amenities, future VRE & more! Plus, enjoy all closing costs paid & 1st year of Condo Fees paid with the use of NVR Mortgage * .

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,948
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$6,000
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,636
• − Management: −$2,636
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable loss: −$14,365
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,448
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,694/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prince William County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103130
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $96,347
• Composite: 57.92/100
• National rank: #1041
• State rank: #30 of 131 in VA

Livability — Cherry Hill

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #310
• US rank: #11135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cherry Hill, VA
• County: Prince William County · 452,627 people
• City population: 21,025
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 22,897
• Household income: $124,318
• Rent vs Own: 28.3% rent · 71.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 571.0

Population outlook (Prince William County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,759 people
• By 2030: 582,629 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 665,916 · +23.4%
• By 2050: 740,796 · +37.2%
• By 2075: 900,980 · +66.9%
• By 2100: 985,833 · +82.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 42% White 24% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 10% Asian 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 6% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Prince William

• 2024 margin: D (+18.0) · D 57.6% · R 39.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.1pp toward D · 2008: 15.9pp · 2024: 18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.0 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+20.0 2012: D+16.0 2008: D+15.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.02%
• Current HPI: 289.8992
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.57%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $429,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-08 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-02 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $434,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-06 Listed $429,990 Zillow