4908 Aspen St

Shady Side, MD 20764

$304,000C-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,500 sqft · Built 1992 · SingleFamily · Pending · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,707/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,594
• Tax + insurance: −$471
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$569
• Net cashflow: $74/mo
• Annual: $887/yr
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.98%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $85,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $304k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $74 ($887/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $271k (10.9% below list).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $271k (10.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#205 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Anne Arundel County Public Schools (suburban): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #10 of 24 in MD (top 42%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Shady Side Elementary (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #353 of 860 statewide, top 45%, 401 students, 29% FRL); Southern Middle (math 8% / reading 39%, grade F, #118 of 225 statewide, top 54%, 755 students, 45% FRL); Southern High (math 52% / reading 73%, grade B-, #62 of 222 statewide, top 29%, 1,066 students, 40% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,303 units permitted in Anne Arundel County in 2024 (299 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Anne Arundel County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $304k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.2% in Shady Side — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.