15415 Miller Creek Dr

Sun City Center, FL 33573

$309,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,935 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 240 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,529/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax + insurance: −$860
• HOA: −$13
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$531
• Net cashflow: $-496/mo
• Annual: $-5,946/yr
• Cap rate: 4.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.87%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $86,520

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $309k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-496 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (28.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (18.1% below list).
• It's been on market 240 days — a 12% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $221k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#178 in FL, #2,736 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cypress Creek Elementary School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,491 of 2,144 statewide, top 70%, 957 students, 63% FRL); Shields Middle School (math 29% / reading 27%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 1,867 students, 68% FRL); Lennard High School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,404 students, 47% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 35% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 721 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 57d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 240 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?