50 Cheyenne Circle Cir

Star Valley Ranch, WY 83127

$515,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,368 sqft · Built 1996 · SingleFamily · Active · 110 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,457/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,701
• Tax + insurance: −$480
• HOA: −$62
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $-2,091/mo
• Annual: $-25,096/yr
• Cap rate: 1.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.94%
• DSCR: 0.25
• 1% rule: 0.28%
• Cash to close: $144,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $515k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-25k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (71.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (71.7% below list).
• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($469k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $146k (71.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $55k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#73 in WY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Lincoln County School District #2 (rural): math 57% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #7 of 41 in WY (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 220 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lincoln County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$89k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.5% vs local median 0.8% in Star Valley Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 72% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?