50 Cheyenne Circle Cir · Star Valley Ranch, WY 83127

$515,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,368 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 110 Days on market

Built 1996 0.78 ac lot $217/sqft · 20% below area Est $647k · 20% under $62/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.4/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Exceptional Space, Privacy & Proven Income. Situated on an oversized 0.78-acre lot -- larger than most in the area. Home offers space, privacy, and outstanding versatility. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms with a spacious, functional layout. Large windows fill the home with abundant natural light. Newer carpet adds a fresh, updated feel throughout. Enjoy the outdoors from the new, large back deck among mature trees that provide beauty and privacy. Even better -- this property has been a successful income-producing rental for the past 10 years, making it an excellent investment opportunity with a strong rental history. Whether you're looking for a primary residence, mountain getaway, or proven rental property, this one stands out.

Key facts

• Large back deck
• Oversized lot
• Mature trees

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• LARGE BACK DECK
• MATURE TREES
• INCOME-PRODUCING RENTAL
• STRONG RENTAL HISTORY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $515k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-25k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (71.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (71.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (71.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 1.5% vs local median 0.8% in Star Valley Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#73 in WY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Lincoln County School District #2 (rural): math 57% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #7 of 41 in WY (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 220 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $55k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lincoln County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$89k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($469k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,553 (71.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 72% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.28% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.94%
• DSCR: 0.25
• GRM: 29.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $646,992
• List price: $515,000
• Delta: -20.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
41 Prater Cir	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,115 (-11%)	4mo	$529,000	$250	64
43 W Elkhorn Dr	0.13mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,490 (+5%)	24mo	$774,999	$311	61
40 Chokecherry Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	2,159 (-9%)	14mo	$776,000	$359	58
43 E Elkhorn Dr	0.23mi	3/2.5	2,144 (-10%)	22mo	$885,000	$413	53
245 N Forest Dr	0.42mi	3/3.0	2,058 (-13%)	7mo	$598,000	$291	52
51 Pine Dr	0.49mi	3/3.0	2,272 (-4%)	22mo	$575,000	$253	52
397 Dogwood Dr	0.66mi	3/3.5	2,532 (+7%)	7mo	$799,000	$316	50
12 Cottonwood Ln	0.30mi	3/2.5	2,064 (-13%)	22mo	$545,000	$264	44
349 Mahogany Way	0.57mi	3/2.0	2,050 (-13%)	4mo	$845,000	$412	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $147,110
• Equity at exit: $463,953

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.73×
• Total profit: $537,620
• Equity at exit: $1,000,532

Cash invested: $144,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Wyoming: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+25
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable; small market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 83127

• Home prices YoY: 32.4%
• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 29.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,457 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,701
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,514/yr
• Insurance: −$215
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$62
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $-2,091

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,104

Max offer price $145,553

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $128,750
• Closing costs: $15,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $62 · $744/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $515,000 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $515,000 Active 109 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $515,000 Active 108 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $515,000 Active 107 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $515,000 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $515,000 Active 104 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $515,000 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $539,000 Active 100 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $539,000 Active 99 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $539,000 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $539,000 Active 96 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $539,000 Active 94 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $539,000 Active 93 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $539,000 Active 92 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $539,000 Active 91 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $539,000 Active 90 DOM
17. 2026-03-01
    listed $539,000 Active 751-char remark

    Show marketing remark (751 chars)

    Exceptional Space, Privacy & Proven Income. Situated on an oversized 0.78-acre lot -- larger than most in the area. Home offers space, privacy, and outstanding versatility. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms with a spacious, functional layout. Large windows fill the home with abundant natural light. Newer carpet adds a fresh, updated feel throughout. Enjoy the outdoors from the new, large back deck among mature trees that provide beauty and privacy. Even better -- this property has been a successful income-producing rental for the past 10 years, making it an excellent investment opportunity with a strong rental history. Whether you're looking for a primary residence, mountain getaway, or proven rental property, this one stands out.

18. 2004-09-24
    soldstatus 101-char remark

    Show marketing remark (101 chars)

    The lot next door (Plat 20 Lot 17) may be purchased along with the home for a total price of $232,000

19. 2004-05-07
    listed $210,000 101-char remark

    Show marketing remark (101 chars)

    The lot next door (Plat 20 Lot 17) may be purchased along with the home for a total price of $232,000

20. 1997-03-20
    listed $188,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,514 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,142 · $262/mo
• Expected delta: +$628/yr (+$52/mo · 25.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 10 d/yr ≥86°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,483
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,848
• − Property taxes: −$2,514
• − Insurance: −$3,242
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,399
• − Management: −$1,399
• − HOA: −$744
• − Depreciation: −$14,982
• Taxable loss: −$35,643
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,554
• After-tax cash flow: $-16,542/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln County School District #2
• NCES district ID: 5604060
• Math proficiency: 57% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $61,907
• Composite: 53.84/100
• National rank: #1413
• State rank: #7 of 41 in WY

Livability — Star Valley Ranch

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #73
• US rank: #11627

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Star Valley Ranch, WY
• Population (ZIP): 3,726

Population outlook (Lincoln County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,890 people
• By 2030: 20,275 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 20,691 · +4.0%
• By 2050: 20,640 · +3.8%
• By 2075: 20,008 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 18,122 · -8.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Italian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Lincoln

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.3) · D 15.1% · R 83.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.4pp · 2024: -68.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.3 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+67.6 2012: R+68.3 2008: R+54.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 78.23%
• Current HPI: 319.45
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+186.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-01 Listed $539,000 TBOR
• 2004-09-24 Sold (MLS) — TBOR
• 2004-05-07 Listed $210,000 TBOR
• 1997-03-20 Listed $188,000 TBOR

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,514 · -28.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.