13903 E Lake Jasper South Ave

Newton, IL 62448

$79,500C

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 684 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Pending · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $795/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$417
• Tax + insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$167
• Net cashflow: $78/mo
• Annual: $939/yr
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.22%
• DSCR: 1.19
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $22,260

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $78 ($939/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $79k (0.0% below list).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $78k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($550 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#809 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, employment D, amenities F.
• Jasper County CUD 1 (town): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #253 of 620 in IL (top 41%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP.
• Jasper County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $80k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.