13903 E Lake Jasper South Ave · Newton, IL 62448

$79,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 684 sqft · SingleFamily · 28 Days on market

Built 1968 0.25 ac lot Est $79k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful view of Lake Jasper, featuring nice deck, outside firepit. 2 car detached garage and storage shed. Home has new flooring and paint. Property sells subject to lake approval and yearly dues.

Key facts

• Outdoor fireplace
• Remodeled bathroom
• Open-concept kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• REMODELED BATHROOM
• NEW CABINETRY
• MINI-SPLIT HEATING AND COOLING
• COVERED BACK PORCH
• OUTDOOR FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $78 ($939/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $79k (0.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $78k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#809 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, employment D, amenities F.
• Jasper County CUD 1 (town): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #253 of 620 in IL (top 41%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($550 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jasper County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $80k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $78,307 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.22%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $79,344
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13903 E Lake Jasper South Ave	0.00mi	1/1.0	684 (0%)	1mo	$79,500	$116	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $48,292
• Equity at exit: $71,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.21×
• Total profit: $138,318
• Equity at exit: $154,451

Cash invested: $22,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62448

• Home prices YoY: 13.4%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $795 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$417
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,197/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$167
• Net cashflow: $78

Break-even live

Break-even rent $696

Max offer price $79,500

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,875
• Closing costs: $2,385
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-07
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-23
   listed $79,500 Active
4. 2021-09-15
   soldstatus $40,000
5. 2011-10-03
   soldstatus $40,000 198-char remark

   Show marketing remark (198 chars)

   Beautiful view of Lake Jasper, featuring nice deck, outside firepit. 2 car detached garage and storage shed. Home has new flooring and paint. Property sells subject to lake approval and yearly dues.

6. 2011-04-07
   listed $44,000 198-char remark

   Show marketing remark (198 chars)

   Beautiful view of Lake Jasper, featuring nice deck, outside firepit. 2 car detached garage and storage shed. Home has new flooring and paint. Property sells subject to lake approval and yearly dues.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,197 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,501 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: +$304/yr (+$25/mo · 25.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,539
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,453
• − Property taxes: −$1,197
• − Insurance: −$398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$763
• − Management: −$763
• − Depreciation: −$2,313
• Taxable loss: −$347
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$83
• After-tax cash flow: $1,022/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jasper County CUD 1
• NCES district ID: 1720380
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $50,304
• Composite: 25.82/100
• National rank: #7358
• State rank: #253 of 620 in IL

Livability — Newton

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #809
• US rank: #15982

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,263

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,203 people
• By 2030: 8,927 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 8,350 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 7,733 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 6,335 · -31.2%
• By 2100: 4,960 · -46.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.2) · D 16.8% · R 82.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.7pp toward R · 2008: -17.6pp · 2024: -65.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.2 2020: R+62.4 2016: R+59.7 2012: R+41.2 2008: R+17.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.86%
• Current HPI: 201.3868
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+80.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — CIBR
• 2026-04-07 Contingent — CIBR
• 2026-03-23 Listed $79,500 CIBR
• 2021-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 2011-10-03 Sold (MLS) $40,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-04-07 Listed $44,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,197 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.