3289 State Hwy Unit 17 C

Palermo, CA 95965

$7,500D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Built 1973 · Manufactured · Active · 199 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,263/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$39
• Tax + insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $951/mo
• Annual: $11,411/yr
• Cap rate: 158.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 543.36%
• DSCR: 25.18
• 1% rule: 16.84%
• Cash to close: $2,100

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $8k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $951 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $8k).
• It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($7k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $7k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $52 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $225 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,219 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Palermo Union Elementary (town): math 20% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,149 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $2k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 158.4% vs local median 3.8% in Palermo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.