3289 State Hwy Unit 17 C · Palermo, CA 95965

$7,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 199 Days on market

Built 1973

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fixer Upper in Golden Oaks! This 2 bedroom, 1 bath home offers 720 square feet of space. Bring your imagination and make this home a reality! Quite and secluded park in Oroville and a short commute to Chico.

Key facts

• Golden oaks
• Built 1973
• Listed 198 days

Tags

• GOLDEN OAKS
• QUITE AND SECLUDED PARK
• SHORT COMMUTE TO CHICO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Oroville, CA 95965 near Highway 70 (3289 State Hwy Unit 17 C)
• Financial info: Land lease: No (listed land lease amount present but land lease flagged No)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; 220V in laundry; Public sewer; Water from water district
• Home design: Manufactured in park; Single wide; Fleetwood make; Built in 1973
• Construction: Aluminum skirting; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Other lot features

Interior

• Kitchen: Hood over range; Ice maker; Breakfast area
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Other
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Ceiling fans; Other cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast area in kitchen; Dining and living room combined; Living room with additional unspecified feature; Hood over range; Ice maker; Pets allowed
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $8k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $951 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $8k).
• Recommended offer: $7k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 158.4% vs local median 3.8% in Palermo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,219 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Palermo Union Elementary (town): math 20% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,149 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $52 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $225 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $2k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($7k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $6,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 16.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 158.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 543.36%
• DSCR: 25.18
• GRM: 0.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $28,224
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3289 Hwy 70 Unit 6C	0.05mi	2/1.0	760 (+13%)	20mo	$32,000	$42	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 28.60×
• Total profit: $57,955
• Equity at exit: $1,118

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 59.51×
• Total profit: $122,867
• Equity at exit: $648

Cash invested: $2,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95965

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 0.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,263 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$39
• Tax from tax record: −$4 /mo · $53/yr
• Insurance: −$3
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $951

Break-even live

Break-even rent $59

Max offer price $7,500

Occupancy floor 20%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $955	-5% $953	+0% $951	+5% $949	+10% $947
Rent	-10% $851	-5% $901	+0% $951	+5% $1,001	+10% $1,051
Rate	-1.0pp $955	-0.5pp $953	base $951	+0.5pp $949	+1.0pp $947

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,875
• Closing costs: $225
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $7,500 Active 199 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $7,500 Active 198 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $7,500 Active 197 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $7,500 Active 196 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $7,500 Active 195 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $7,500 Active 193 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $7,500 Active 192 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $7,500 Active 190 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $7,500 Active 189 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $7,500 Active 188 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $7,500 Active 187 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $7,500 Active 184 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $7,500 Active 182 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $7,500 Active 181 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $7,500 Active 180 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    pricedays on market $7,500 Active 179 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $53 · $4/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $57 · $5/mo
• Expected delta: +$4/yr ($0/mo · 7.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥104°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 35 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,156
• − Mortgage interest: −$420
• − Property taxes: −$53
• − Insurance: −$38
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,212
• − Management: −$1,212
• − Depreciation: −$218
• Taxable income: $12,002
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,880
• After-tax cash flow: $8,530/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palermo Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0629540
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $39,628
• Composite: 25.26/100
• National rank: #12903
• State rank: #1149 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Palermo

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1219
• US rank: #26161

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Butte County · 175,030 people
• City population: 1,346
• Metro: Chico, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,181
• Household income: $53,198
• Rent vs Own: 37.1% rent · 62.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 892.0

Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,527 people
• By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
• By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 20% Asian 16% Two or more races 13% Black 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butte

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.76%
• Current HPI: 317.0277
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.88%
• Metro: Chico, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $53 · +26.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.