812 Colby Ave

Philadelphia, PA 08075

$279,900D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,516 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,525/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$724
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $-197/mo
• Annual: $-2,369/yr
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.02%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $78,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-197 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (12.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (9.8% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $245k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#348 in PA, #3,054 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Delran Township School District (suburban): math 22% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #251 of 472 in NJ (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Millbridge Elementary School (653 students, 26% FRL); Delran Middle School (math 25% / reading 53%, grade F, #207 of 431 statewide, top 48%, 710 students, 24% FRL); Delran High School (math 23% / reading 57%, grade F, #187 of 399 statewide, top 48%, 912 students, 21% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,161 units permitted in Burlington County in 2024 (988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Burlington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 36% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.5% in Philadelphia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.