970 St Joseph Ln

Marysville, MI 48040

$239,900F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,380 sqft · Built 1994 · Condo · Active · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,435/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax + insurance: −$309
• HOA: −$180
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $-614/mo
• Annual: $-7,367/yr
• Cap rate: 3.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.97%
• DSCR: 0.51
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $67,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $240k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-614 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (45.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (40.2% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (45.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#114 in MI, #2,700 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, employment D+, health & safety D.
• Marysville Public Schools (suburban): math 42% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #115 of 540 in MI (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Marysville Middle School (math 37% / reading 46%, grade F, #192 of 493 statewide, top 39%, 616 students, 35% FRL); Marysville High School (math 42% / reading 67%, grade C-, #109 of 713 statewide, top 17%, 769 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 232 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Clair County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask is 63% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $240k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 3.2% vs local median 4.6% in Marysville — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.