15 Alpine Dr Unit F

New Hamburg, NY 12590

$185,000B+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 660 sqft · Built 1968 · MultiFamily · Pending · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,374/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$258
• HOA: −$325
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$709
• Net cashflow: $1,112/mo
• Annual: $13,349/yr
• Cap rate: 13.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.77%
• DSCR: 2.15
• 1% rule: 1.82%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath multifamily listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $185k).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $182k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Wappingers Central School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #207 of 590 in NY (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Sheafe Road Elementary School (math 36% / reading 53%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 575 students, 38% FRL); Wappingers Junior High School (math 30% / reading 54%, grade D-, #379 of 729 statewide, top 54%, 735 students, 36% FRL); Roy C Ketcham Senior High School (math 90% / reading 92%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 1,612 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 35% FRL vs 15% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 206 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $113k; list at $185k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.