15 Alpine Dr Unit F · New Hamburg, NY 12590

$185,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 660 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1968 3,920 sqft lot $280/sqft · 40% below area Est $308k · 40% under $325/mo HOA · 19% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Montclair community in the heart of Wappngers Falls. Second-floor 1 bed, 1 bath condo offering beautiful mountain views. Enjoy a newly renovated bathroom and comfortable living with heat and hot water included in the HOA. Grounds maintenance, water, and sewer are also covered. Walk to the community pool—perfect for easy, low-maintenance living. Great commuter location. Two and a half miles to New Hamburg Train Station, minutes to Route 9 and Wappingers Village. Close access to all necessities, restaurants, shops, and the Hudson River.

Key facts

• Commuter location
• Community pool
• Mountain views

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• NEWLY RENOVATED BATHROOM
• COMMUNITY POOL
• COMMUTER LOCATION
• CLOSE ACCESS TO NECESSITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Town & Country association; Monthly association fee of $325; Association covers: common area maintenance, exterior maintenance, grounds care, heat, hot water, pool service, sewer, snow removal, trash, water

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking (1 space); No carport
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electric service by Central Hudson
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Brick exterior
• Exterior features: Brick construction; Not waterfront; Community outdoor pool; Playground (community)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 4 (includes bedrooms and living areas)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Wall/window air conditioning unit(s)
• Interior features: Galley-type kitchen; One-level living; No basement; No attic
• Laundry & utility: Electricity connected

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath multifamily listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Wappingers Central School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #207 of 590 in NY (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Sheafe Road Elementary School (math 36% / reading 53%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 575 students, 38% FRL); Wappingers Junior High School (math 30% / reading 54%, grade D-, #379 of 729 statewide, top 54%, 735 students, 36% FRL); Roy C Ketcham Senior High School (math 90% / reading 92%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 1,612 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 35% FRL vs 15% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 206 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $113k; list at $185k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $182,225 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.77%
• DSCR: 2.15
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $307,566
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -39.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $31,203
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $81,081
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12590

• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,374 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,170/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$325
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$709
• Net cashflow: $1,112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,966

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,217	-5% $1,165	+0% $1,112	+5% $1,060	+10% $1,008
Rent	-10% $846	-5% $979	+0% $1,112	+5% $1,246	+10% $1,379
Rate	-1.0pp $1,206	-0.5pp $1,159	base $1,112	+0.5pp $1,064	+1.0pp $1,016

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	1	1	$3,374
Total (2 units)			$3,374

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19 Alpine Dr Unit F Wappingers Falls, NY	1.0	1.0	660	$1,795	$2.72	45d	1	0.07mi
37 Alpine Dr Unit C Wappingers Falls, NY	1.0	1.0	650	$1,800	$2.77	15d	1	0.22mi
19 Main St Unit 5 Wappingers Falls, NY	1.0	1.0	650	$1,700	$2.62	15d	1	1.01mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $325 · $3,900/yr
• Likely covers: watersewerlandscapingpool

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-28
   listed $185,000 Active 562-char remark
2. 2009-12-31
   historical
3. 2009-04-03
   listed
4. 2007-01-17
   soldstatus $113,000
5. 1989-07-13
   soldstatus $68,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,170 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,648 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$478/yr (+$40/mo · 22.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,488
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,170
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,239
• − Management: −$3,239
• − HOA: −$3,900
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $11,270
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,705
• After-tax cash flow: $10,644/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wappingers Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3629880
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $83,184
• Composite: 53.38/100
• National rank: #1474
• State rank: #207 of 590 in NY

Livability — New Hamburg

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Dutchess County · 188,048 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 35,712
• Household income: $102,285
• Rent vs Own: 30.5% rent · 69.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 786.0

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -411.49%
• Current HPI: 255.2764
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.08%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+172.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Listed $185,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-12-31 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2009-04-03 Listed — HGMLS
• 2007-01-17 Sold (Public Records) $113,000 Public Records
• 1989-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,170 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.