5808 Royal Ridge Dr Unit J

West Springfield, VA 22152

$175,000C

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 675 sqft · Built 1974 · Condo · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,101/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$277
• HOA: −$257
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $207/mo
• Annual: $2,489/yr
• Cap rate: 7.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.08%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 1.20%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $207 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#125 in VA, #4,050 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities D-, commute F.
• Fairfax County Public School District (suburban): math 61% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #13 of 131 in VA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: West Springfield High (math 76% / reading 77%, grade A-, #99 of 319 statewide, top 31%, 2,663 students, 17% FRL) — zoned schools at 17% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 92 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,861 units permitted in Fairfax County in 2024 (1,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fairfax County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.0% in West Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($166k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.