5808 Royal Ridge Dr Unit J · West Springfield, VA 22152

$175,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 675 sqft · Condo public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1974 $257/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT VALUE AT THE REDUCED PRICE OF $198,900!!! VERY NICE 1 BR, 1 BA CONDO IN TIVOLI. 2ND FLOOR UNIT. FRESH PAINT. NEWER CARPETS AND APPLIANCES. STACKABLE WASHER/DRYER IN UNIT CONVEYS. PLENTY OF PARKING. Spend the summer enjoying tennis courts, pool and club house. Close to shopping, VRE, Accotink Lake and Park! PUBLIC OPEN HOUSE JUNE 10 1-4PM

Key facts

• Community pool
• Private balcony
• Tennis courts

Tags

• PRIVATE BALCONY
• COMMUNITY POOL
• IN UNIT LAUNDRY
• CENTRAL AIR
• TENNIS COURTS
• BASKETBALL COURT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly condo fee of $257; Condo fee covers common area maintenance, exterior building maintenance, and reserve funds; Community amenities include outdoor pool, recreational center, tot lots/playground, tennis courts, and common grounds

Exterior

• Parking: Unassigned parking; Other parking type
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric power
• Home design: Condominium unit in a garden-style building (1–4 stories); Unit/Flat; Entry on the 2nd floor
• Construction: Combination construction materials; TIVOLI CONDO building; Above grade and below grade structures; Pets allowed on a case-by-case basis
• Exterior features: No tidal or waterfront; Common grounds

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator; Stove
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Electric hot water
• Interior features: Washer and dryer in unit or hookups available; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator; Stove
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in unit or hookups available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $207 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.0% in West Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#125 in VA, #4,050 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities D-, commute F.
• Fairfax County Public School District (suburban): math 61% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #13 of 131 in VA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: West Springfield High (math 76% / reading 77%, grade A-, #99 of 319 statewide, top 31%, 2,663 students, 17% FRL) — zoned schools at 17% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 92 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,861 units permitted in Fairfax County in 2024 (1,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($166k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fairfax County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.08%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-17,330
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-6,822
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22152

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,101 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,454/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$257
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $207

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,838

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5903 Kingsford Rd Springfield, VA	1.0	1.0	676	$1,750	$2.59	18d	1	0.44mi
8525 Burling Wood Dr Springfield, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	967	$1,905	$1.97	1d	16	1.16mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $257 · $3,084/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $175,000 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-04
   listed $175,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,454 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,454 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,208
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,454
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,017
• − Management: −$2,017
• − HOA: −$3,084
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$132
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$32
• After-tax cash flow: $2,520/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairfax County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101260
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $110,238
• Composite: 62.59/100
• National rank: #679
• State rank: #13 of 131 in VA

Livability — West Springfield

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #125
• US rank: #4050

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Springfield, VA
• County: Fairfax County · 1,104,456 people
• City population: 29,066
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 28,814
• Household income: $165,906
• Rent vs Own: 14.2% rent · 85.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 263.0

Population outlook (Fairfax County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,237,259 people
• By 2030: 1,277,758 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,346,508 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 1,397,919 · +13.0%
• By 2075: 1,493,100 · +20.7%
• By 2100: 1,465,712 · +18.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 19% Asian 16% Two or more races 13% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 7% Korean 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Fairfax

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+35.0) · D 66.1% · R 31.1% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +13.8pp toward D · 2008: 21.2pp · 2024: 35.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+35.0 2020: D+41.9 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+19.8 2008: D+21.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -340.12%
• Current HPI: 355.9566
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.87%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+204.3% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-26 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-20 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-08-20 Sold (Public Records) $194,000 Public Records
• 2007-08-17 Sold (MLS) $194,000 MRIS
• 2007-07-17 Delisted — MRIS
• 2007-04-24 Listed $198,900 MRIS
• 2007-01-01 Delisted — MRIS
• 2006-10-20 Listed — MRIS
• 2003-12-08 Sold (Public Records) $113,000 Public Records
• 2003-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2003-09-16 Sold (MLS) $100,000 MRIS
• 2003-09-08 Delisted — MRIS
• 2003-09-05 Listed $100,000 MRIS
• 1991-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $57,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,454 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.