105 Old Lyme Dr #3

University at Buffalo, NY 14221

$151,999C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,078 sqft · Built 1966 · Condo · Pending · 165 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,054/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$797
• Tax + insurance: −$199
• HOA: −$395
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $232/mo
• Annual: $2,784/yr
• Cap rate: 8.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.54%
• DSCR: 1.29
• 1% rule: 1.35%
• Cash to close: $42,560

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $152k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $232 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $152k).
• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $134k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#9 in NY, #176 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D+, employment F.
• Williamsville Central School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #114 of 590 in NY (top 19%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 329 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $152k implies a 95% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 2.8% in University at Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.